OK, multiple choice quiz. Sacramento County’s real estate market in September for September is:

1. Somewhat bleak
2. Very bleak
3. Not too bad
4. Hard to characterize due to bad data

Well, in some respects we have a better case for “Very Bleak” than we did in August. The year to year median sale price decreased 6.5% from September to September, from $374,900 last September to $350,500 this September. August’s year on year median sale price decrease, in contrast, was 4.6%. This doesn’t surprise me too much, in light of the fact that (I believe) the peak of the sales curve was last August, but prices really didn’t start falling in earnest until much later. I also do believe we’ll continue to see decreases, but it seems to me (from my own business at any rate) that we have gotten to the point where buyers are feeling like taking advantage of the prices.

On the other hand, the average sold price at first appeared to be up from last year, while the average square footage from last year looked pretty ridiculous. I had to throw out some bad data points, so I don’t have a lot of comfort, but it looks like the average sale price declined from $406,782 last September to $385,879 this September, a 5.1% decrease.

Meantime the expired to sold ratio rose from August to September of this year, from 96% to 110.4%. Overall, there were 1082 sold units in September and 1195 expireds. Unit volume was down 47.2% from last year’s number of 2048 sold units.

So the numbers are not all that great (for sellers at any rate), but there’s enough incorrect data in there to make me suspect the specific numbers somewhat.

What continues to amaze me however is how much competition I’m seeing on the “good” properties. On the last offer I wrote (this weekend) and one other this year, we were in a multiple offer situation. Again, I liken it to a fruit vendor with too much inventory of fruit, but a couple of very beautiful ripe samples in his cart that two buyers fight over. Or you can think of it like the line of suitors for the high school beauty queen / hearthrob versus the chances of the average Plane Jane / John.

blog comments powered by Disqus