Last month we took a look at some Sacramento County Foreclosure and Short Sale Data, and at that time had MLS data to show active short sales at about 24% of inventory.  (Actually you’ll note the chart shows 11% + 12%, so that looks like 23%, but there’s a rounding error going on).

OK, I get it.  Is there a rounding error or not is not an interesting question, to all but the most bow-tie wearing of math geeks.

Here are the interesting questions:  What are this month’s numbers, and how do they compare to last month’s?  Do we have more foreclosures and short sales than last year, or less?

Well, darn, sports fans.  We have more.  Of our unsold inventory in MLS, here’s the breakdown.  Now we’re up to some 26% of overall inventory.  In Sacramento County as of this morning, our MLS inventory contains:

1,345 Real Estate Owned (Bank Repos) or 12.18% of total

1,533 Short Sales, or 13.88% of total

8,163 All others, or 73.93% of total.

(From now on, if anyone asks me the very common question “Do you have bank repos?”, I’m going to be fairly tempted to say, “Yes, as a matter of fact, we have 1,345 of them.  Let’s go pick one out.”)

Here it is graphically:

 

But the really, really $64,000 questions are these:

• How big will those pie pieces get?
• What time will it be when they’re as big as they’re going to get?

We don’t realistically expect the distressed properties to make up 100% of the total, since even if the market goes somewhere unpleasant in a handbasket, there’ll always be a number of “traditional” sales mixed in.

Have we posted the price curve lately?  I’m really starting to feel like old Ross Perot here.  So many charts.  So little time.

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