Well, finally found what Mark (anoymous) was yapping about. His perspective is short and I’m not sure he has ever owned real estate.

Jen, John, keep it going.

Having a lot of friends and contacts in the industry, I hear and sense that there is a lot of “action” in the market since 1/1/7.

My lender friends are busy, my Realtor friends are busy, and my builder friends phones are ringing…pretty typical for a January of any year except 2006. It used to be in NorCal that they all waited until the 49ers or Raiders seasons were done…they are!

Was Jen wrong in assuming a 4% appreciation rate – not really, just naive that some carreer naysayer wouldn’t blast her.

I’ve modeled a 1.5% appreciation rate over 10 years with 20% down will meet or exceed renting – that is if the renter doesn’t otherwise blow the uninvested money on wine and women – a worthy adversary.

Maybe Nebraska would have a tough time making that 1.5% rate, but here in CA, its better than that.

I’ll recall some friends in 96 told me they couldn’t afford a new custom home they wanted to build. 2 incomes no kids. But they had a really nice B&O system in the rental living Room ($7K) he said to me, you want to see my old one in my study? ($5K) They would drive over to the site in either their 325i or maybe the Range Rover and wonder what to do. Finally 6 months later, a lender showed them the way into their dream home which cost about $350K. Today its worth at least $800K with their equity growing from a down payment (10%) of $35K to about $485. And his payments today are less than renting.

The real upside …. they now have a place to raise their kids.

SO why do I think people are buying now when some experts say there might be a little more coming off? Buyers are finding properties that are either already discounted or are forcing the discount to the proper number. THats why new home sales were up in the 4th quarter.

In good and poor markets there are great and poor properties. In a great market, all sell quickly and for a lot of money. In a slower market, the poor properties sit forever and bring down the averages and median prices that the pundits cite.

People come to you blog already know they’re talking to a Realtor, duh. They know the advice will be somewhat biased. You offer links to the naysayers, so you’re being fair.

Thanks very much!

Hey look, that’s the number one technological act of mercy, and you encouraged me AND Jen, so if someone’s writing this down like St. Peter or somebody you should definitely score double!

Duh indeed. Anyone who can’t figure out I’m selling houses or thinks this blog is non-commercial should check out the header. You don’t think I hide the fact that I’m a Realtor® too much with my picture, the Realtor® trademark, the company name “Elite Properties”, the title “Managing Broker”, and a toll-free number, do you?

Thanks again for chiming in. Your penultimate paragraph was especially brilliant I thought. There are always a few bargains to be had, and I absolutely love it when I help my clients find one — they win, I win, and nobody loses except some landlord. And as you point out, unlike shares of stock whose value can theoretically plummet to zero, if push comes to shove you can always live in these things I sell.

Whoda thunk I’d end up in sales. How fun is this? It’s a blast! For all those who don’t want a house, here’s a short and sweet answer for you: “No problem, don’t buy one from me. I work a cool fifty-five hours a week helping people who do want one, and I’m working on hiring my third agent to help me. Have a nice day.”

And oh yeah, PS, call me if you change your mind.