credit: ishrona

Readers of this blog and Purva Brown’s Sacramento Real Estate Gal probably know that Purva is more of a real estate market optimist than I am. So she’s more likely to say something like this:

“Hey, you bubble blogger guys slept through the recovery!”

Sometimes I feel like such a coward, to tell you the truth, sending out a poor pregnant woman out to do the company’s rhetorical bear hunting.

On reflection, though,it’s probably not a bad thing to have a real estate company where the agents are optimists and the broker is a pessimist. While the agents are all out selling (a tough job where sometimes only optimism stands between you and despair), it’s the broker who’s supposed to be in the office fretting over getting sued.

We don’t say “pessimist” on the resume; we say “risk manager.”

What Do You Want To Prove?

Ouch, prices have come down 29.9% in Antelope, from the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2008 (sold price per square foot). The median sale price fell 26.2% during this period, from $325,000 in the first quarter of 2007 to $240,000 in the first quarter of 2008. The average home sold for $238,829 in first quarter of ’08, down 28.1% from last year’s average selling price of $331,995.

If you’re Chicken Little, of course that proves that the sky is falling.

Meantime, a group of ungrateful home buyers in Antelope — heedless of the Naderesque altruism of these tireless geniuses who selflessly risk their anonymous reputations by toiling at their keyboards to warn buyers about the dangers of home ownership — these ungrateful buyers, I say, have refused to do the sensible thing and stay home and duck the falling pieces of Sacramento’s market.

In Antelope, in the first quarter of 2008, unit volume was up 44.5% from last year.

Damn it, ungwateful buyers. Wun away! Wun away!

Chicken Little was on such a winning streak last year in Antelope. Unit volume was down to 110 units for the first quarter of 2007. By August of last year, inventory in Antelope had topped twelve months.

Following the sell-off in the first quarter, we’re now looking at inventory numbers of 7.1 months.

Ingwates, that’s what you are.

Chicken Little FAQ

Q. How can you tell if Chicken Little is on your blog?
A. Your delete key finger is getting tired.

Q. What’s the difference between Ralph Nader and Chicken Little?
A. Ralph Nader has a job, and some people voted for him for President.

Q. Why does Chicken little tell you not to buy when prices are falling?
A. Because the bubble is bursting.

Q. Why does Chicken little tell you not to buy when prices are rising?
A. Because the bubble is going to burst.

Q. How do you make Chicken Little Soup?
A. Put Chicken Little in a pot. Boil vigorously. Then go out for Chinese.

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