Wow. It’s pretty amazing that 65% of all Sacramento county sales are foreclosures! Even the “Untouchables” of East Sac and Land Park have 13% and 19%, respectively. While not approaching the 74% of 95822, these neighborhoods are by no means healthy. The lesson: Don’t try to catch a falling knife (i.e., don’t try to exactly catch the bottom in a falling market. Wait until stabilization is obvious so you minimize risk).

Well, as always, “the lesson” is in the eye of the student. From the fact that year on year unit volume is up from last year for the fifth month in a row, and that more homes sold in May of this year than April and May of last year combined, one could take a different lesson. Many people are neither trying to minimize risk nor time the bottom, because they’re buying a place to live rather than a stock certificate (or a knife). As such, they’re pretty uninterested in the commentary of the armchair quarterbacks on either team. They’ll buy a home when it’s convenient for them and when they think it’s prudent to do so. If they didn’t, the stabilization would never even start, let alone become obvious.

What the numbers tell me, as one of those people shopping for a first home, is that I’m not alone in watching the numbers. There are so many of us who have been priced out of the market for years, watching prices rise at rates far greater than incomes, that now people who have not had a chance at realistically affording a home previously are jumping in with both feet. Talk about pent-up demand, sure… it’s a demand for more reasonably priced real estate!

And then, of course, there’s the land speculators, hoping to cash in on someone else’s misfortune, figuring that even if it drops a little further, they’ll still make money inside of 5 years…

Jamie,

It’s nice to hear from a buyer — i.e., someone who finds the numbers useful. So often it seems like it’s dueling pundits. I should have the Sacramento market update on line in a few minutes.

I know what you mean about wanting something affordable. I bought my home at $145,000 ten years ago and thought that was a lot of money. I think you’re right that first time buyers such as yourself make up the bulk of the buyers. I’m not sure there are a lot of investors taking advantage of the prices — though I’ve seen a few. I think more will start to show up when the properties “pencil out” better (i.e., provide positive cash flow).

Let me know if we can help in any way with your search.

I know what you mean. 10 years ago, I was just out of college and living with a friend who had just bought a house in midtown for the astronomical price of $270,000; justifiable, though, as it was a nice bungalow with the attic converted into a second floor. Last year the place sold for, I believe, $750,000. Talk about price inflation!

My wife and I are just beginning this process, but it’s nice to have to tools to do so in an informed manner. Your search page functions and property info pages have been very helpful, with much more information than most other real estate search pages; the one thing that it could use is a search parameter for how recently properties have been added. Currently, I either have to look past all the search results I already know about, or search on another page which sorts by date and then look up the properties on your page to get the whole story.

Thanks again for this site… it is making a big difference to us personally.

I’m glad you find it useful. Yes, we don’t really have days on market data in the web site, but two possible solutions are to sign up for email updates on the web site, or we can create a custom search to send you new listings as they become available. Either way that way you’d only see the new stuff. Naturally if you don’t have an agent, we’re also happy to help when you get to the point of wanting to go look at some properties. The other step we very strongly recommend is getting with a lender early, so you have a good idea of what your payment will be. I find that buyers who put this step off until later sometimes overestimate their comfort level and end up overextending themselves. Feel free to give me a call directly if you need anything — 530-672-9160.

Cheers.