10 Jun
The Seller’s Market In Folsom in May of 2008 (No, Really)
Posted June 10th, 2008 | View Comments
All Real Estate is local. Several months ago there was a big debate among some real estate bloggers about whether real estate bloggers should engage in the cultural crime of “localism”, or whether they should do whatever else they would be doing if they weren’t doing that.
I had to laugh, because, as I said: all real estate is local. If you doubt me, try buying a house that isn’t where it is. Let me know how that works out.
You can say “the real estate market” is an oxymoron, or you can say “the real estate market” is an abstraction that often breaks down at the local level.
Here’s an example. Overall, area-wide, nation-wide, yes we’re all in a panic, the sky’s falling, oh my goodness, yada yada yada. That said, for several months in row, East Sacramento was going through a serious seller’s market. They didn’t get the memo.
The seller’s market in East Sacramento later stopped. I haven’t checked out the numbers this month yet, so we’ll find out later — maybe it’s back.
Meantime, owners in Folsom may with some justice declare that the seller’s market has traveled east of Hazel Ave and has landed squarely in 95630. Yes, prices have come down from last year — albeit to a lesser degree than the averages for any of the counties that surround Folsom on three sides. Sold price per square foot fell 14.9%, the median price fell 10.6%, and the average sale price — at $437,332 — was down 11.9% from last year’s average of $496,302.
However, inventory is down below the six month figure that traditionally defines the border between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Based on unit volume for May, it’s down to 3.8 months, and even using the absorption rate of the last year, it’s at 5.06 months. Best of all, the inventory figure for non-distressed homes — you know, those poor people who actually continued to pay their mortgage before they sold — stands at 4 months.
Unit volume is up 17.9% from last May, and the expired to sold ratio is down, from 38.8% (already a low figure) in May of 2007, to 15.2% in May of 2008. The only fly in all this sweet smelling ointment is the figure for average days on market, which is up to 52 days (compared to 34 days last May).
