Actualización de mercado Bienes Raíces sacramento – Perdición, Melancolía y Adquisición de Vivienda

Este no es un buen artículo que lo lleve a comprar algo. Los vendedores siempre son positivos, lo dice el mejor entrenador de la industria Tommy Hopkins. Hoy soy más un crítico social.

Esta tiene que ser la última vez en este mes que he escrito una actualización del mercado de Sacramento desde que comencé a escribirlas. Tal vez primero una breve disculpa:

Lo siento.

Creo que no quiero solo charlar acerca de las estadísticas de cuánto las casas cayeron de precio en el último año.  Lo he estado haciendo desde el 2005, aproximadamente, y está envejeciendo. Lo que lo lleva a ser  aun  más antiguo es esta gran especialización que tiene Sacramento Bee en historias de cómo todo es un desastre. Uno o dos días atrás, mis ojos de más de cincuenta años se tropezaron con  un artículo acerca de cómo las personas mayores de cincuenta años están pasando por un momento difícil en esta economía.

Hola, Tierra a Sacramento Bee, si está teniendo un tiempo fácil en esta economía,  probablemente es un gerente de Fondos de Protección (o cobertura), o tal vez un congresista amenazando encender un detonador debajo de la calificación de crédito AAA de nuestro país en aras de no violar su promesa a Grover Norquist, aún es otro tipo blanco rico que quiere ser más rico de lo que es.

Fueron estos hombres blancos ricos, queriendo ser más ricos de lo que eran, quienes inventaron el comercio de productos derivados y toda clase de trucos para inflar la oferta monetaria, creando una especie de tormenta de demanda de los compradores en los primeros cinco años de la última década. Cuando ellos hicieron (no diré ganaron) dinero, ellos hicieron dinero. Cuando ellos perdieron dinero, nosotros los contribuyentes pagamos sus pérdidas.

Si hay una posibilidad de esperanza en este caos, esta en que la verdad de la situación es que cuando antes las casas de tres habitaciones eran de U$400,000, la mayoría de ustedes no podían realmente pagarlas. En junio de este año el promedio del precio de venta de una casa en el Condado de Sacramento estaba en U$180,474, 12,8% menos que junio del 2010. La mediana del precio de venta fue de U$158,400.

De acuerdo con el censo de Estados Unidos del 2010, la mediana anual de ingreso en los hogares en el Condado de Sacramento era de U$52,502 en el 2010, lo que equivale aproximadamente a U$4,375.17 por mes. Teniendo en cuenta un préstamo FHA con 3.5% de pago inicial, el pago del hogar promedio equivale a U$1,223 (usando mi vieja regla de espera de valoración aproximada de ocho dólares por cada mil dólares prestados – que es una herramienta de estimación y no una oferta de préstamo). Lo que resulta ser es un pago del 28% de los ingresos brutos – y el 28% es usualmente considerado un conservador “proporción principio-fin”, lo cual es el pago mensual del salario bruto. (El “proporción fin final”, su deuda total incluyendo otras obligaciones como un porcentaje de sus ingresos, depende de cuánta deuda usted tiene en total).

En otras palabras, hemos llegado al punto donde la “familia promedio” puede financiar “la casa promedio”. ¡Y sólo tomo seis años de caída de precios para llegar allí! (¿Usted tiene la sensación que las casas en el 2004 estaban demasiado caras? Debería).

Claro está, si nuestros bufones del Congreso no salen adelante, la ley de la aproximación de ocho dólares por mil tendrá que ser ajustada hacia arriba, porque está basada (en parte) en las tasas de interés.

Si yo fuera usted compraría una casa antes que nuestra economía explote completamente.

O rentar, guardando lingotes de oro y munición de rifle debajo de su cama, dependiendo de su estado de ánimo.

Y si eso no ha sido suficiente estadística para usted, estoy publicando los siguientes números.

Reporte del Mercado para el Condado de Sacramento de Junio, 2011

Datos Volumen de Unidades

Unidades Vendidas Junio, 2010 Junio, 2011 Cambio
Ejecución de Hipotecas Vendidas (Foreclosures) 670 818 22.1%
(% del total de unidades) 36.2% 42.8%
Venta sin sufficiente capital (Short Sales Sold) 490 425 -13.3%
(% del total de unidades) 26.4% 22.3%
Ni “Foreclosures” Ni “Shorts Sales” (Non-distressed Sold) 693 666 -3.9%
(% del total de unidades) 37.4% 34.9%
Total 1853 1909 3.0%

Información de Precios

Precios Junio, 2010 Junio, 2011 Cambio
Precio Pie Cuadrado Vendido $123.96 $110.08 -11.2%
Pies cuadrados 1680 1639 -2.5%
Promedio Precio de Lista $210,845 $183,786 -12.8%
Promedio Precio de Venta $208,360 $180,474 -13.4%
Mediana Precio de Venta $185000 $158400 -14.4%

Inventario (Basado en 12 meses de ventas anteriores)

Tipo de Venta Promedio de Ventas Por Mes Activo Meses de Inventario
Todas las Ventas 1569 5684 3.6
Ejecución de Hipotecas Vendidas (Foreclosures) 683 719 1.1
Venta sin sufficiente capital (Short Sales) 366 3320 9.1
Ni “Foreclosures” Ni “Shorts Sales” (Nondistressed) 523 1652 3.2

Inventario (Basado en 6 meses de ventas anteriores)

Tipo de Venta Promedio de Ventas Por Mes Activo Meses de Inventario
Todas las Ventas 1643 5684 3.5
Ejecución de Hipotecas Vendidas (Foreclosures) 750 719 1.0
Venta sin sufficiente capital (Short Sales) 374 3320 8.9
Ni “Foreclosures” Ni “Shorts Sales” (Nondistressed) 522 1652 3.2

Sacramento Real Estate Market Update – Doom, Gloom, and Housing Affordability

This is not a good blog post to get you to buy something. Salesmen are always positive, says top industry trainer Tommy Hopkins. Today I’m more of a social critic.

This has to be the latest in the month that I’ve written a market update for Sacramento since I started writing them. Perhaps a brief apology is in order:

I’m sorry.

I suppose I don’t want to just babble on about the statistics of just how much homes fell in price over the last year. I’ve been doing that since about 2005, and it’s getting old. What helps it get even older is this great specialization that the Sacramento Bee has in stories about how everything is a disaster. A day or two ago, my over fifty eyes caught sight of an article about how people over fifty are having a hard time in this economy.

Hello, Earth to the Sacramento Bee, if you’re having an easy time in this economy, you’re probably a hedge fund manager, or maybe a congressman threatening to light a fuze under our country’s AAA credit rating for the sake of not violating your pledge to Grover Norquist, yet another rich white dude who wants to be richer than he is.

It was these rich white dudes, wanting to be richer than they were, who invented derivative trading and all sorts of creative shenanigans to inflate the money supply, creating a sort of firestorm of buyer demand in the first five years of the last decade. When they made (I won’t say earned) money, they made money. When they lost money, we the taxpayers covered their losses.

If there’s a silver lining in this mess, it’s that the truth of the matter is, back when three bedroom homes in Sacramento were $400,000, most of you couldn’t really afford them. In June of this year the average sold price of a home in Sacramento County was $180,474, down 12.8% from June of 2010. The median sale price was at $158,400.

According to the US Census (2010), the median annual household income in Sacramento County was $52,502 in 2010, which works out to about $4,375.17 per month. Given an FHA loan with a 3.5% down payment, the payment on the median home works out to $1,223 (using my old standby rule of thumb estimate of eight dollars per thousand borrowed — which is an estimating tool only and not an offer to loan). What this works out to be is a payment of 28% of gross income — and 28% is usually considered a conservative “front end ratio”, which is monthly payment / gross pay. (The “back end ratio”, your total debt including other obligations as a percentage of your income, depends on how much debt you have overall).

In other words, we have reached the point where the “median household” can afford “the median home”. And it only took six years of falling prices to get there! (Do you get the sense that homes in 2004 were overpriced? You should).

Of course, if our Congressional bozos don’t get their acts together, that eight dollars per thousand rule of thumb will have to be adjusted upwards, because it’s based (in part) on interest rates.

If I were you I’d buy a home before our economy blows up completely.

Or rent, keeping gold bullion and rifle ammunition under your bed, depending on your mood.

And if that wasn’t wonkish enough for you, I’m posting the numbers below.

Market report for Sacramento County for June, 2011

Unit Volume Data

Units Sold June, 2010 June, 2011 Change
Foreclosures Sold 670 818 22.1%
(% of total units) 36.2% 42.8%  
Short Sales Sold 490 425 -13.3%
(% of total units) 26.4% 22.3%  
Non-distressed Sold 693 666 -3.9%
(% of total units) 37.4% 34.9%  
Total 1853 1909 3.0%

Price Data

Prices June, 2010 June, 2011 Change
Sold Price / Square Foot $123.96 $110.08 -11.2%
Square Feet 1680 1639 -2.5%
Average List Price $210,845 $183,786 -12.8%
Average Sale Price $208,360 $180,474 -13.4%
Median Sale Price $185000 $158400 -14.4%

Inventory (Based on 12 months of prior sales)

Sale Type Average Sales Per Month Active Months of Inventory
All Sales 1569 5684 3.6
Foreclosures 683 719 1.1
Short Sales 366 3320 9.1
Nondistressed 523 1652 3.2

Inventory (Based on 6 months of prior sales)

Sale Type Average Sales Per Month Active Months of Inventory
All Sales 1643 5684 3.5
Foreclosures 750 719 1.0
Short Sales 374 3320 8.9
Nondistressed 522 1652 3.2

Sacramento County Real Estate Market Update

Well, the numbers for homes sold in May are in, so it’s time to take a look at our local real estate markets, beginning with Sacramento County. To look at unit volume first, it’s practically unchanged since last year, at 1761 units sold in May 2010 versus 1757 in May, 2011, a difference of only .2%. However, when we start to see what’s happening on the foreclosure front, a different picture emerges. Compared to the same time last year, foreclosures are up significantly, some 15.5%, from 644 last year to 744 this year. Short sales are down slightly, 2.4%, from 421 last year to 411 this year. Meantime, non-distressed sales are down substantially, from 696 homes in May of 2010 to 602 homes in May of 2011. The net result is that the number of distressed properties selling has risen from 60.5% to 65.7%, or just under two thirds of all sales.

Interestingly, the Sacramento numbers seem to be an exception to the trend in California. According to RealtyTrac, from May to April the number of foreclosures sold statewide has dropped from 22,488 in May, 2010 to 14,724 in April of 2011. Unfortunately RealtyTrac hasn’t yet published May numbers, so there’s a little bit of an apples and oranges thing going on here, but it does look like we’re an exception to the rule.

As you might expect from the breakdown of what’s selling, prices are down — a lot! The average sold price per square foot fell 13.6^from year to year, from $125.55 in May of 2010 to $108.48 in May of 2011. The median price has dropped from $180,000 to $160,000 during this time (remember that this number includes condos, so single family homes are no doubt higher). The average sale price of $207,162 in 2011 has fallen to $177,491 in May of 2011, a 14.3% drop.

In terms of inventory, once again short sales throw the numbers off at 9.5 months of inventory. Inventory for both foreclosures and non-distressed sales are low, at 1.1 months and 3.5 months, respectively. Overall inventory is at 3.8 months, with 1587 homes selling per month over the last six months, an 6,020 homes active as of this article.

Unit Volume Data

Units Sold May, 2010 May, 2011 Change
Foreclosures Sold 644 744 15.5%
(% of total units) 36.6% 42.3%  
Short Sales Sold 421 411 -2.4%
(% of total units) 23.9% 23.4%  
Non-distressed Sold 696 602 -13.5%
(% of total units) 39.5% 34.3%  
Total 1761 1757 -0.2%

Price Data

Prices May, 2010 May, 2011 Change
Sold Price / Square Foot $125.55 $108.48 -13.6%
Square Feet 1650 1636 -0.8%
Average List Price $209,102 $180,676 -13.6%
Average Sale Price $207,162 $177,491 -14.3%
Median Sale Price $180000 $160000 -11.1%

Inventory (Based on 12 months of prior sales)

Sale Type Average Sales Per Month Active Months of Inventory
All Sales 1564 6020 3.8
Foreclosures 671 825 1.2
Short Sales 371 3479 9.4
Nondistressed 525 1723 3.3

Inventory (Based on 6 months of prior sales)

Sale Type Average Sales Per Month Active Months of Inventory
All Sales 1597 6020 3.8
Foreclosures 737 825 1.1
Short Sales 365 3479 9.5
Nondistressed 498 1723 3.5

The Seller’s Market In Roseville

I recently dusted off the yellowed pages of my Roseville Real Estate Blog with an update on the exciting seller’s market sort of thing going on in Roseville. What’s going on there is extremely low inventory and high demand, partly as a result of continuing price decreases from foreclosures and short sales. I expect that any day now the whole area market will recover completely, and a major terrorist will be killed.

Well, OK, so the market still has a little way to go. But I find the numbers in Roseville encouraging. Clearly investors and others are smelling the bargains and taking advantage of them.

El Dorado Real Estate Market Update November 2010

The bouncing back of economy and increase in consumer spending are yet to have their impact on the El Dorado County real estate market. Despite there is the growth in the overall volume of sale, the November price is yet to touch the same level as a year ago. The encouraging market price trends of September and October are gradually slowing down. The real estate market in El Dorado has witnessed a sharp fall in median sales compared to this time of the past year. However, unlike its neighbor Sacramento County, volume of sales in El Dorado remains high in November 2010. The encouraging September trends of this year somehow continue to influence new real estate investments as non-distressed sales are still there.

Volume of Sales Up, Unit Price Down

The total number of November sales in El Dorado County considerably increased. There has been 20.7 percent surge in total number of units sold compared to November 2009. During the November month of the past year, there were 150 units sold. This number went up to 181 units in November 2010. The statistics indicate that though non-distressed sales continue to dominate the volume, there has been steady fall in its overall percentage, from 57.3 percent to 39.8 percent. Short sales have more than doubled and there has been whopping 144 percent rise in that category. The foreclosures are growing in numbers and constitute 35.9 percent of overall volume. These two constitute around 60 percent of total sales, an 18 percent overall increase than November 2009 statistics.

There has been marginal to medium decline in the price segment in the El Dorado County real estate market in November 2010 compared to the same time during the past year. The per square foot price has come down to $139.23, about 8 percent less than November 2009. The flip flop in average list price and average sale price continue to be there and these slide marginally, around 4 percent compared to November 2009. But the median sale price has gone down $37,000, a whopping 10 percent decline. The overall decline in the price despite enthusiastic September and October trends are attributed to a sharp rise in November short sales compared to the same time in 2009.

Inventory Status

The average status of the inventory for the past 12 months indicates rapid foreclosure sales. The short sales and non-distressed sales have higher inventory. Non-distressed sales on an average have 11-month inventory sale listing.

El Dorado Real Estate Market Statistics, November 2010

You can see the tables following showing the statistical comparison of November 2010 real estate data from the El Dorado County with that of November 2009.

Unit Volume Data

Units Sold November, 2009 November, 2010 Change
Foreclosures Sold 46 65 41.3%
(% of total units) 30.7% 35.9%
Short Sales Sold 18 44 144.4%
(% of total units) 12.0% 24.3%
Non-distressed Sold 86 72 -16.3%
(% of total units) 57.3% 39.8%
Total 150 181 20.7%

Price Data

Prices November, 2009 November, 2010 Change
Sold Price / Square Foot $151.28 $139.23 -8.0%
Square Feet 2244 2336 4.1%
Average List Price $350,242 $336,585 -3.9%
Average Sale Price $339,565 $325,297 -4.2%
Median Sale Price $317000 $285000 -10.1%

Inventory (Based on 12 months of prior sales)

Sale Type Average Sales Per Month Active Months of Inventory
All Sales 164 1203 7.3
Foreclosures 56 187 3.3
Short Sales 34 400 11.5
Non-distressed 73 618 8.4

Inventory (Based on 6 months of prior sales)

Sale Type Average Sales Per Month Active Months of Inventory
All Sales 171 1203 7.0
Foreclosures 56 187 3.3
Short Sales 34 400 11.7
Non-distressed 81 618 7.6

Sacramento Real Estate Market Update, November, 2010

Pessimists, Start Your Engines

In 2003 and 2004, those of us in real estate marveled at how the prices of homes shot skywards, seemingly with no end in sight and with no basis in the reality of how much people could really afford. In 2005 and 2006, of course, that trend reversed, and the period between 2007 and 2009 has been one in which there were occasional glimmerings of something that looked like a recovery, as if trying to tease us all into a premature optimism.

This year’s numbers don’t give me much cause for optimism. Other things do, like the fine job my agents are doing and how they worry if things don’t go 100% to perfection. That’s what makes them great agents. Or the continued goodwill and patronage of our buyers over the years, including this one. Or Santa coming. But the real estate numbers this month? Not on your life.

Price and Volume Are Down

Although the number of units sold in Placer County and El Dorado County have increased year over year, unfortunately both numbers are in the red in Sacramento County.  In terms of volume, 1433 units sold in November, down 4.3% from last November.  The decrease came largely from a decrease in the number of non-distressed homes that sold.  These are homes that are neither short sales nor foreclosures.  This category fell 13.6% year on year, while the number of short sales was down only slightly at 1.5%, and the number of foreclosures sold was up 2.8%.

Countywide, sold price per square foot (our favorite measure of true price) was down 6.1% in November, from $123.38 at the same time last year to $115.85 this November.  Since this year’s average sized home was 4.1% larger than last year’s (1631 square feet versus 1698 square feet), the average sale priced dropped a more modest 2.2%, from $201,259 to $196,814.

Once again, we have a small number of nondistressed sales and REOs (foreclosures) in inventory, at 3.9 and 2.5 months, respectively.  At the same time there are 11 months of short sale inventory to get through.  Part of this reflects the fact that we measure inventory as number to be sold divided by number sold each month, and in the short sale case the number sold each month is generally much lower than for other types of homes.  Today’s short sale buyer is often tomorrow’s “no, I changed my mind, I’m tired of waiting for the bank” buyer.

A Word About The Data

The data I generally use for these market updates is for all single family homes, including  “detached homes” (houses) and condominiums.  Because I include condominiums in the data, my numbers are generally several thousand dollars lower than you’ll find on other web sites that may feature Sacramento Statistics.

The raw MLS data for November is below.  Enjoy!

Unit Volume Data

Units Sold November, 2009 November, 2010 Change
Foreclosures Sold 614 631 2.8%
(% of total units) 41.0% 44.0%  
Short Sales Sold 325 320 -1.5%
(% of total units) 21.7% 22.3%  
Non-distressed Sold 558 482 -13.6%
(% of total units) 37.3% 33.6%  
Total 1497 1433 -4.3%

Price Data

Prices November, 2009 November, 2010 Change
Sold Price / Square Foot $123.38 $115.85 -6.1%
Square Feet 1631 1698 4.1%
Average List Price $200,404 $201,857 0.7%
Average Sale Price $201,259 $196,814 -2.2%
Median Sale Price $175000 $170400 -2.6%

Inventory (Based on 12 months of prior sales)

Sale Type Average Sales Per Month Active Months of Inventory
All Sales 1522 8055 5.3
Foreclosures 611 1475 2.4
Short Sales 368 4337 11.8
Nondistressed 546 2252 4.1

Inventory (Based on 6 months of prior sales)

Sale Type Average Sales Per Month Active Months of Inventory
All Sales 1523 8055 5.3
Foreclosures 601 1475 2.5
Short Sales 376 4337 11.5
Nondistressed 549 2252 4.1

Placer County Real Estate Market Update

This year in Placer County the number of homes sold was down from last year, while home prices have changed very little during the same time.  The number of units dropped 12.2% from the 417 sold in October of last year to 366 in October of this year.  Foreclosure sales were down 33.1%, and the number of non-distressed units sold was down 17.5%.  The only category to show a sharp increase mirrors what we’ve seen in El Dorado and Sacramento Counties – the number of short sales jumped 37.2%, from 78 units last year to 107 units this year.

Home prices in Placer County have changed very little over the last year.  The sold price per square foot has fallen, but only by eight tenths of a percent, from $147.09 last year to 145.87 this year.  Since square footage was up slightly, the average sale price fell only one tenth of one percent (which works out to be less than $200).  Last October’s average sale price was $319,317, while this October the average was $319,124.

The inventory picture in Placer County is remarkably similar to Sacramento County.  There are 6.1 months of inventory overall (compared to 6.2 months for Sacramento County).  As in Sacramento County, the biggest category of homes in inventory are short sales, with some 10.9 months of unsold properties to work through.  Foreclosures make up the smallest category, at only 2.3 months of inventory.

Sacramento County Real Estate Market Update – October, 2010

Here it is the beginning of November, and as usual at the beginning of the month we can start to look backward at the previous month of sales and tell you how things are going.  This is one of those economies where one looks at a set of data – house price loss, job loss, or what have you – and what passes for optimism is usually captured in the phrase “less severe than expected”.   It’s not that the not that the news is routinely good yet – we can all get out our crystal balls and pretend we know the answer to that one.  Instead, the news is less bad than we’ve sometimes seen it in recent memory.

So let me start with that.  Compared to many periods we’ve looked at since the turn of the market in 2005 and 2006, the losses we see from October 2009 to October 2010 were “less severe than expected” for Sacramento County.   Unit volume was down 16.2% from year to year, from 1711 units sold in October, 2009 to 1434 units sold in October, 2010.  Most of this decline was in the number of short sales and non-distressed sales, dropping 18.9% and 18.8%, respectively, while the number of short sales sold dropped only slightly, 6.1%.  As a result, short sales made up a larger percentage of overall sales volume this year, not buy much (21% of total sales last year versus 23.5% this year).  Short sales still account for less than a quarter of overall homes sold even though they make up more than half of our inventory, probably because most buyers get tired of waiting the three months, six months, or more for an overworked beaurocrat in a bank to open their file.

Home prices also fell from October to October, though very slightly compared to the overall volume.  Average sold price per square foot was down 2.5% during this time, from $121.86 in 2009 to $118.80 in 2010.  The average price fell 1.3% from year to year, from $200,576 last October to $197,949 this October  Meantime the median sale price fell a bit more sharply, from $179,900 last year to $170,000 this year (5.5%).

As a result of the decline in sales and the large backlog of unsold short sales (13 months of short sale inventory), overall inventory numbers have been creeping up.  Currently we’re at 6.2 months of inventory, or at the beginning of what is technically a “buyer’s market”.  Yes, I know, it feels like we’ve been there awhile, hasn’t it, but the arbitrary cut-off many author’s use to tell the difference is 6 months of inventory.  As we move into winter, we expect inventory to continue to increase slightly, meaning more and more choices for buyers.  Many of those choices are going to be short sales, however, so what this means for a buyer is that you should plan on looking and starting to write offers as much as three to six months or more before you’re planning to move.  You should also consider getting bank-preapproved for a loan, especially to help you take advantage of the small number of REOs in inventory (currently 2.6 months of inventory).  Be prepared for a “no” or two in this market, too, because you’ll be competing with cash buyers.

Sacramento Real Estate Market Update: Franklin and Freeport Areas

Our last Market Update focused on El Dorado Hills, one of the top three areas in our area in terms of price (the other two being Granite Bay and East Sacramento).  This week by way of contrast we consider an area that is on the lower rungs of the price ladder, the Franklin / Freeport areas.  Roughly speaking, these are the portions of South Sacramento that lie in the zip codes 95822, 95823, and 95832.  These were some of the areas that first felt the brunt of the foreclosure crisis, and that have pretty consistently been hardest hit.

The already low 2009 prices in this area fell 3.3% from September to September, from $86.97 per square foot in 2009 to 84.13 in 2010.  This brought the average sale price from $118,317 for 1396 square feet in 2009 down to $116,791 in 2010, a 3.9% drop.  Yet in spite of the price drops, unit volume also fell 33.7% from year to year, from a total of 193 in 2009 to 128 in 2010.  Part of this is probably due to the fact that many people don’t have jobs, and those who do are nervous about keeping them.  Moreover, banks are becoming increasingly tight in their lending practices. 

Another factor in the unit volume drop may be the difficulties of the sale process itself.  The number of sales that were short sales rose 20.7% from year to year, while the number of of foreclosures fell by more than half, from 100 last September to only 48 this year.  Like last year, we’re seeing very low foreclosure inventory (2.9 months as of September), with ever increasing short sale inventory (13.7 months).  (If you’re curious, non-distressed homes are selling well in this area, with only 3.8 months of inventory).  As most of my readers already know, the “short” in short sale signifies that the seller is short on funds to pay off the loan.  Short is a very ironic name however, considering that the long period that it takes to close these sales could try the patience of the most laid back buyer.

At various times over the last year we’ve seen sporadic signs of something looking like a recovery, especially in better priced neighborhoods.  We’re not seeing anything resembling a recovery in Franklin and Freeport now, but of course, the low prices means an opportunity for private buyers who plan to live in the area for the long term, and for those investors who can afford to buy and hold.  Although many investors steer clear of them, the potential for cash flow is generally much better on lower priced homes.  This is not the place to buy if you anticipate having to cash out within the next few years.

El Dorado Hills Real Estate Market Update

The real estate maket in El Dorado Hills in September is doing relatively well, as one might expect from the richest community in El Dorado County. Although the facile portrayal of the housing downturn as a product of sub-prime borrowers living in poor neighborhoods is an exaggeration, we have noticed that the wealthier communities have generally fared somewhat better in the market. To be sure, they have lost value, and to be sure, there are plenty of short sales and foreclosures to go around, but generally markets like East Sacramento, El Dorado Hills, Granite Bay and the like are the last to feel the downturn when it comes and the first to recover.

Certainly this is true of El Dorado County in September, where both unit volume sold and prices rose since last year.  To be sure, in the case of price the gain was not huge but in this market any gain is remarkable.  The average sold price per square foot rose 2.2% during this time, from $159.05  per square foot last year to $162.58 this year.  Cynics will point out with some justice that a 2.2% increase is not exactly a phenomenon, but any increase in this market is remarkable.  Because the average size that sold in September was 5.9% smaller than last year (3022 square feet versus 3210) the average sale price actually shows a loss of 3.8% — from $510,592 to $491,350.

Unity volume is up 13.2% in El Dorado County from last year, with 43 units selling this year versus last year’s 43.  Of these, 21 units were non-distressed sales, the same as last year.  The profile of the typical non-distressed sale, meanwhile, has changed dramatically, with a noteworthy 240% increase in short sales, from 5 units in September of 2009 to 17 units in September of 2010.  Meantime the number of foreclosures has fallen 58.3%.

Unit Volume Data

Units Sold September, 2009 September, 2010 Change
Foreclosures Sold 12 5 -58.3%
(% of total units) 31.6% 11.6%  
Short Sales Sold 5 17 240.0%
(% of total units) 13.2% 39.5%  
Non-distressed Sold 21 21 0.0%
(% of total units) 55.3% 48.8%  
Total 38 43 13.2%

Price Data

Prices September, 2009 September, 2010 Change
Sold Price / Square Foot $159.05 $162.58 2.2%
Square Feet 3210 3022 -5.9%
Average List Price $515,439 $514,254 -0.2%
Average Sale Price $510,592 $491,350 -3.8%
Median Sale Price $441500 $455000 3.1%

Inventory (Based on 12 months of prior sales)

Sale Type Average Sales Per Month Active Months of Inventory
All Sales 50 466 9.2
Foreclosures 12 45 3.5
Short Sales 12 199 16.1
Nondistressed 25 222 8.6

Inventory (Based on 6 months of prior sales)

Sale Type Average Sales Per Month Active Months of Inventory
All Sales 55 466 8.4
Foreclosures 12 45 3.6
Short Sales 13 199 15.1
Nondistressed 29 222 7.5

El Dorado County Real Estate Market Update – October 9, 2010

This month’s market update for El Dorado County showed that we had fairly low inventory overall coupled with too much short sale inventory, making for further price reductions since 2009. But while prices were down in Sacramento County, to the east in El Dorado County remained steady, changing a mere .2% from last year’s sold price per square foot figure of $146.63 to $146.99 this year.  Total unit volume is identical in both years.  In fact, you could hardly ask for a better example of a stable market (or a flat market, if you want to be pessimistic about it).  As for me, after the last few years I’m encouraged any time prices aren’t falling like a rock.

It also comes as no surprise that the number of non-distressed sales in El Dorado County compares favorably to that of Sacramento County.  The largest category of sales in Sacramento county in September was foreclosures (36.4%), and running a close second were non-distressed sales, at 36.4%.  In El Dorado County, however, 47.2% of the homes that sold in September were non-distressed sales.  To be sure, the number of short sales and foreclosures is still huge by 2004 boom-year standards, but it’s encouraging to see that the higher inventory in El Dorado County hasn’t done much to impact prices, at least over the last year.

Unit Volume Data

Units Sold September, 2009 September, 2010 Change
Foreclosures Sold 68 48 -29.4%
(% of total units) 41.7% 29.4%  
Short Sales Sold 22 38 72.7%
(% of total units) 13.5% 23.3%  
Non-distressed Sold 73 77 5.5%
(% of total units) 44.8% 47.2%  
Total 163 163 0.0%

Price Data

Prices September, 2009 September, 2010 Change
Sold Price / Square Foot $146.63 $146.99 0.2%
Square Feet 2207 2172 -1.6%
Average List Price $331,624 $333,870 0.7%
Average Sale Price $323,720 $319,326 -1.4%
Median Sale Price $286000 $275950 -3.5%

Inventory (Based on 12 months of prior sales)

Sale Type Average Sales Per Month Active Months of Inventory
All Sales 162 1742 10.7
Foreclosures 55 251 4.5
Short Sales 33 512 15.4
Nondistressed 74 980 13.2

Inventory (Based on 6 months of prior sales)

Sale Type Average Sales Per Month Active Months of Inventory
All Sales 179 1742 9.7
Foreclosures 57 251 4.3
Short Sales 36 512 13.9
Nondistressed 84 980 11.6

Sacramento County Real Estate Market Update, September, 2010

Our market data for September is finally in.  I had to do some updating to the software that I use to crunch and display our market data, but now that that’s done we should be in good shape for awhile.

The housing numbers for Sacramento County for September are consistent with what Purva had reported for earlier months.  Most notably, we’re seeing more and more short sales closing with fewer and fewer REOs (Real Estate Owned, i.e. bank foreclosures).  This year the number of foreclosures that sold is down 27.6% over last year, while the number of short sales has risen 15.8%.  The number of non-distressed sales sold – sales that are neither short sales nor foreclosures), has fallen 9.6%, but seen as a percentage of total sales, non-distressed sales have remained fairly consistent year to year, at 35% of total sales last year and 36.4% this year. 

Overall this September was not a good month for sales, with unit volume down 13.2% from last year, representing 1666 homes sold last year in September versus 1446 homes this year.  Those who did hold off until this year to buy bought at a discount.  At $116.38 per square foot, sold prices this September were down 3.9% from the 121.06% of last year.  The median sale price is down 1.4% year over year, from $175,000 year to $172,500 this year.  (Remember that these numbers represent both single family homes and condominiums, so numbers for the average single family home will of course be higher).

Like last year, inventory remains extremely low for foreclosures at 1.5 months.  Inventory of short sales is high at 10.3 months.  Overall the inventory numbers are encouraging at 4.4 months.  4.4 months of inventory means that we’re technically in a seller’s market, but the high short sale inventory continues to keep prices low.

Elk Grove Real Estate Market Update: August 2010

As elsewhere in Sacramento county, sales and prices are beginning to stabilize in the city of Elk Grove. Homebuyers are showing a renewed interest in short sales and foreclosure sales as well as non-distressed sales have fallen. 229 homes sold in all of which 40.6% – the majority – continue to be foreclosure sales but a close second are short sales at 38.9% of all real estate sold. The rest 20.5% are non-distressed sales. Foreclosure sales fell 27.3% year over year while non-distressed sales fell 24.2%. Short sales rose 46% year over year as buyers and REO banks are perhaps on the same page for the first time in a long while.

Average price per square foot also stabilized at $113.83 which is 1.1% higher than it was a year ago. Then it was $112.55. Average sales price for a home in Elk Grove is now $246,358 which is 2.3% lower year over year. It fell from a high of $252,062. Median sales price fell 5.4% for the same period from $242,000 to rest at $229,000 currently.

As Elk Grove starts reducing its short sale inventory, the numbers begin to look better – overall inventory is at 2.9 months, short sale inventory under half a month, non-distressed at 1.4 months and short sale inventory at 7.7 months.

Pending Sales Rise

While we have been covering closed sales on this website in three categories of bank owned homes, short sales and non-distressed sales and have also been tracking housing inventory, one other indicator of how the real estate market is doing is the pending sales index. The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

With reference to pending sales, there seems to be some relatively decent news. Following a sharp drop in the months immediately after expiration of the home buyer tax credit, pending home sales have modestly risen, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The pending homes sales index rose 5.2% to 79.4 based on contracts signed in July. It is however still 19.1% lower than it was in July 2009.

NAR chief economist, Lawrence Yun, however cautioned that there would be a long recovery process. “Home sales will remain soft in the months ahead, but improved affordability conditions should help with a recovery,” he said. “But the recovery looks to be a long process.”

Sacramento County Real Estate Update: August 2010

While I’ve been busy tending to kids almost all day long lately (and if you missed it, I’m taking up full-time mothering as my new profession at least for now beginning at the end of this month – reference John’s earlier post.) things in the Sacramento real estate market have not been stagnant although this month’s market update seems not too different from that of August 2009. Let’s take a closer look.

1596 homes sold in all in the month of August. 38.5% of these were foreclosure sales, 26.4% were short sales and the rest 35.1% were non-distressed sales. Buyer interest in short sales has risen since a year ago and correspondingly foreclosure sales have fallen. REO sales fell 24.3% while short sales rose 27.9% year over year. Non-distressed sales remained almost unchanged for the same period. Unit volume fell 7.4% year over year.

Average sold price per square foot is almost the same as it was last year. It is currently $120.25. Last year, average sold price per square foot was $118.98. Average sales price remained almost unchanged at $198,397 this August from $197,464 last August. Median sales price sits at $175,000 down 2.8% year over year from a high of $180,000.

Inventory in Sacramento county is currently at 4.5 months.

Greenhaven Real Estate Market Update: July 2010

24 homes sold in the Greenhaven area in the last month of July. This is an overall unit volume drop of 20% year over year, consistent with the volume drop the last time we checked in November of 2009. Of the 24 homes sold, the majority (but just barely) were non-distressed sales. The rest 6 were foreclosure sales and 5 were short sales. Sales dropped 38% year over year for non-distressed homes and 14.3% for foreclosure sales. Short sales were up from 2 last year at this time to 5.

Average sold price per square foot is currently $154.32. This is up 9% year over year from $169.66 last July. Homebuyers preferred smaller homes by far this July with the average home sold sized down to 1738 from 1978 last year. Average sales price fell correspondingly to $268,277 from $335,676 last July. That’s a drop of 20.1% year over year. Median sales price currently rests at $250,000 a fall of 25% for the same period.

Real estate inventory in Greenhaven is at 6.5 months based on the last year of sales and 6 months based on the last six months of sales.

East Sacramento Real Estate Market Update: July 2010

More price stability but lesser people shopping for a home. As elsewhere in Sacramento county, the same mantra is true for East Sacramento as well. Just 30 homes sold in the East Sac area, an overall unit volume decrease of 34.8% year over year. The most marked change was in the category of foreclosure sales which fell by 50% year over year followed by non-distressed sales which fell 36.4% for the same period. Short sales remained fairly stable.

Not only were home buyers not looking a lot, the closed escrows seem to suggest that they were also interested in smaller homes. The average home sold in East Sacramento was 11.1% smaller this July than last July. This fact is reflected in the average sales price which fell 7.8% year over year from a high of $290,946 to rest at $268,335. The more accurate figure is the average price per square foot which rose 3.8% year over year from $212.07 to $220.07. Median sales price fell 2.7% for the same period. It is currently $253,000.

East Sacramento is just shy of 6 months of real estate inventory.

Carmichael Real Estate Market Update: July 2010

As Sacramento home owners wait for a recovery, even a leveling off seems like good news lately. And if you own a home in Carmichael, you should be breathing a sigh of relief. We’re of course not over the real estate slump yet, but there seems to be some sort of end in sight, at least locally. Everything could change if the market does not absorb the short sales currently listed, but at least for now it seems like the long road to recovery has begun, even though it might be uphill.

53 homes sold this last month in Carmichael, almost the same number as last July when 55 homes had sold – that’s a unit volume drop of 3.6% year over year. Foreclosure sales fell 38% while the number of short sales doubled. Non-distressed sales remained almost the same. 64% of all homes sold are now non-distressed as compared with just 56% last year at this time.

Average price per square foot is now $171.24 – an increase year over year of 6.8%. Last July, it was $160.38. Average sales price rose 21.9% year over year – however homebuyers also bought homes on average 14% bigger, so keep in mind that the average price per square foot is the more accurate figure here. Average sales price in Carmichael is currently $339,313. Median sales price rose 14.2% and currently rests at $265,000.

Inventory in Carmichael is currently at 5.1 months.

Land Park Real Estate Market Update: July 2010

Most homebuyers will agree that Land Park is a real estate market all unto its own. It does follow the general trend of Sacramento county but it is unique in its reluctance to absorb short sales month after month, year after year. This July, the decline in sales has been quite drastic and not just including short sales.

Real estate property sales dipped 51.9% in Land Park, with foreclosures dropping 75% and non-distressed sales falling 47.8% year over year. No short sales sold, as with last July. Overall, just 13 homes closed escrow – 12 non-distressed and 1 foreclosure sale.

Average sold price per square foot remained amazingly level. Currently $251.39 it fell just 2.3% year over year from a high of $257.41. Homebuyers however picked out bigger homes and bought on average homes 18% larger this July than they had last July. This affected average sales price which rose 15.3% year over year from $384,867 to $443,615. The more accurate figure here is of course the average price per square foot. Median sales price also rose this month, albeit at a smaller percentage of 8.1% from $370,000 to rest at $400,000.

Land Park currently has 8.2 months of inventory based on the last year of sales.

Antelope Real Estate Market Update: July 2010

The last time we looked at the real estate market in Antelope in April of this year, the market didn’t look much different from this month. 59 homes have sold in the month of July, an overall unit volume decline of 21.3% year over year. Foreclosure sales alone fell 28.6%. There have been falling sales in all categories we track including short sales (which fell 5.9%) and non-distressed sales as well (which fell 18.8%) year over year.

The overall ratio of distressed sales to non-distressed has not change dramatically year over year. Approximately 4 out of 5 homes sold continue to be distress sales in the area of Antelope, the zip code of 95843 in Sacramento county.

Average sold price per square foot is now $111.14 which is 4.5% lower than it was a year ago. Last July, it was at a high of $116.43. Average sales price has risen since we last took a a look at Antelope. However, it is still 3.5% lower than it was last July when it was $202,764. Currently, it is $195,621. Median sales price rose 1.5% for the same period from $197,100 to a high of $200,000.

Inventory has fallen since we last looked to 4.3 months based on the last year of sales.

Elk Grove Real Estate Market Update: July 2010

219 homes sold in the city of Elk Grove this last month, an overall unit volume decrease of 17% year over year. Foreclosure sales alone fell 41% while non-distressed sales declined 8.2% year over year making this one of the slowest years in real estate sales. Short sales in Elk Grove increased however by 31.5% which means that 1 out of every 3 homes sold in Elk Grove is now a short sale – quite impressive if you consider how home buyers were not interested in short sales a little while ago. Sales seem equally divided between foreclosures, short sales and non-distressed homes.

Average price per square foot declined slightly this month from $115.55 last July to rest at $111.82. That’s a 3.2% decline year over year. Average sales price is now $232,070 – a 5% decrease for the same period from a high of $244,430. Median sales price remained mostly unchanged at $228,800. Last July it was $229,500.

Overall inventory in Elk Grove is stable at 3.2 months with foreclosure inventory at half a month.

Folsom Real Estate Market Update: July 2010

Sales volume in Folsom as elsewhere in Sacramento county has dropped considerably. It might be safe to call this year the slowest year in real estate since we started tracking numbers. Overall unit volume declined 31.6% year over year with sales dropping from 76 last July to just 52 homes sold this July. Foreclosure sales and non-distressed properties both dropped – the former fell by 52% while the latter by 29.5% year over year. Short sales increased by a small number – 2 more short sales this July over last July. Almost 3 out of every 5 homes currently sold are now non-distressed sales.

Average sold price per square foot in Folsom declined 6% year over year. From a high of $176.48 last July, it now rests at $166.08 this July. Average sales price fell 4% correspondingly to rest at $350,840 from a high of $365,587. Median sales price is now $351,450. Last July it was almost the same at $355,500.

Inventory in Folsom is around 4 months. Foreclosure inventory is around 1 month. Short sale inventory is the largest at right around 9 months.

El Dorado County Real Estate Market Update: July 2010

163 homes sold in the county of El Dorado this last month, an overall unit volume decrease of 12.8% year over year. The largest decrease was in the category of foreclosure sales where home sales dropped from 69 last july to just 42 this july. That was a decline of 39.1% year over year. Short sales increased by 7.7% while non-distressed sales dropped 1% for the same period.

Average sold price per square foot remained mostly unchanged year over year. It is currently $153.30 which is a 0.4% drop from $153.88 last July. We see the same trend here in El Dorado county that we are seeing all over Sacramento county – price stability and much lower sales volume. Average sales price also remained stable at $357,877. Median sales price dropped 5.3% from $337,750 to rest at $319,777.

Inventory in El Dorado county is at 8.9 months based on the last year of sales and 8.1 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory is at a little under three months.

Sacramento County Real Estate Update: July 2010

If you’re not really interested in real estate and market updates right now, you are in the majority. Definitely a large number of people have lost interest in real estate, including, it seems homebuyers.

Overall unit volume dropped 23.9% year over year in Sacramento county. 1433 homes sold this July over 1883 last July. Foreclosure sales fell 40.4% while non-distressed sales dropped 15.3% for the same period. Short sales on the other hand rose 10% year over year, but not enough to make up for the downward push on home sales.

Prices seem to have stabilized – at least for now. Average sold price per square foot is now $122.47, which is 1.3% higher than it was last July when it was $120.93. Average sales price rose 4.4% in Sacramento county up from $196,323 to rest at $204,995. Median sales price remained unchanged year over year at $175,000.

Inventory in Sacramento county is currently at 4.5 months. Foreclosure inventory is at 1.4 months.

Rosemont Real Estate Market Update: June 2010

62 homes sold in the area of Rosemont this past month, an overall unit volume increase of 19.2% year over year. Unlike elsewhere in Sacramento county where foreclosure sales have been falling, Rosemont shows an increase in foreclosure sales year over year – an increase of 38.1% to be exact. Short sales remained largely unchanged year over year as well as non-distressed sales. Roughly 1 out of every 3 homes sold is a non-distressed sale.

Average price per square foot increased by 1% year over year, another indicator that the real estate market might finally be leveling off. Average price per square foot is currently $120.42 up from $119.19 last June. Average sales price rose 3% for the same period from $164,227 last June to rest at $169,101. Median sales price dropped a little – 3.5% from $171,050 to $165,000.

Inventory in Rosemont is currently at 5.5 months (based on the last year of sales). Foreclosure inventory is currently at 3.1 months while short sale inventory remains high at 14.3 months. Nondistressed inventory is at 3.3 months.

Greenhaven Real Estate Market Update: June 2010

Well, well, well… it’s been a while since we looked at the real estate market in the Greenhaven or Pocket Area as it is sometimes referred to around here. This is the 95831 area code and during the happy real estate times, it was hard to find a house here that stayed on the market longer than a few days without multiple offers. Today the scenario looks quite a bit different but not hopeless.

Volume has not changed much year over year. 32 homes sold this June – almost the same as 31 last June. Foreclosure sales have fallen 33.3% while short sales have increased somewhat. Non-distressed home sales also remained almost the same – a 10.5% increase year over year. 65.6% of all homes sold in the pocket area are now non-distressed sales.

Average price per square foot rose slightly from $165.88 last June to rest at $167.71 this June. Homebuyers however bought homes markedly larger than they did last year. The average square footage of homes sold was 12.6% more year over year. Average sales price rose accordingly from $289,644 to $329,747 – a 13.8% increase. However, the more accurate number in terms of prices is the average sold price per square foot. Median sales price has also risen 11.2% from $272,000 to $302,500.

Inventory in Greenhaven is at 6.3 months.

East Sacramento Real Estate Market Update: June 2010

Homebuyers didn’t seem as interested in buying houses in East Sacramento this month as they usually are. Just 28 homes sold in the entire month of June in the area as compared with 41 a year ago. That’s a unit volume decrease of 31.7% year over year. Foreclosures alone fell 66.7% year over year in sales followed by non-distressed sales which fell 22.2% for the same period. Short sales remained mostly unchanged in number as last June – 3 this June as compared with 2 the last.

Average price per square foot is now $230.61, which is now up 7.1% year over year from $215.40. Homebuyers still preferred houses on average 2.5%. However, average sales price remained above the $300,000 mark at $301,693. That was an overall increase year over year of 4.4% from $289,099. Median sales price is currently $291,000 down 6.1% for the same period from the high of $310,000.

Inventory in East Sacramento is at 5 and a half months. Foreclosure inventory still hovers around 2 months.

Fair Oaks Real Estate Market Update: June 2010

39 homes sold in all in the city of Fair Oaks in June 2010. That number was an overall unit volume increase of 18.2% year over year. Of the 39 homes, 11 were foreclosure sales, 9 were short sales and 19 were non-distressed homes. Overall, it seems as if the market is relatively unchanged from last June. Roughly 1 out of 2 sold homes is not distressed. The increase in unit volume was evenly dispersed over all three categories we track.

Average price per square foot is currently $155.92 which is on overall drop of 4.8% year over year. Average sales price fell 6.9% from a high of $288,042 last June to rest at $268,253. Median sales price also fell but not very far from $241,000 to currently $237,000. That is a drop of 1.7% year over year. Home buyers also preferred houses on average 2.2% smaller this June over last June.

Inventory in Fair Oaks is at 5.8 months based on the last year of sales and 6.1 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory is at 1.2 months no matter how you look at it.

Carmichael Real Estate Market Update: June 2010

This month we saw an increase in unit volume sales in the city of Carmichael. 52 homes sold in the month of June – an increase year over year in real estate sales by 18.2%. Foreclosure sales remained at almost the same number, which is an oddity in a county where elsewhere foreclosure sales are falling at a rapid rate. Short sales more than doubled year over year while non-distressed sales fell 21% for the same period. Overall, home buyers seem to be gravitating towards short sales more than non-distressed homes or foreclosure sales. 1 out of 3 homes sold today is non-distressed.

Average price per square foot is now $152.92 which is 1.2% lower than it was a year ago when it was $154.82. Home buyers also seemed drawn to smaller homes – the average sold home in Carmichael this month was 7.5% smaller than it was a year ago. Average sales price is currently $257,227 which is 8.7% lower year over year from a high of $281,637. However, keep in mind that the more accurate figure here is the average price per square foot. Median sales price fell 10.9% year over year from $248,450 to $221,250.

Real estate inventory in Carmichael is currently at 5 and a half months.

El Dorado County Real Estate Market Update: June 2010

196 homes closed escrow in the month of June in El Dorado county. While parts of Sacramento county are beginning to level off and even have some price gains, El Dorado county is lagging behind in this area.

196 homes selling was an overall unit volume increase year over year from 176 home sales last June in the area of 11.4%. Foreclosure sales increased slightly t 8.2% and short sales gained a whopping 114.3% year over year. Non-distressed sales continued to fall by 9.6%. In fact, non-distressed sales now make up 43.4% of all sales while last year they made up 53.4% of all real estate sales.

Average price per square foot is now $151.80 which is a 4% decline year over year from a high of $158.16. Average sales price in El Dorado county for a house is $365,469 down 3.4% from a high of $378,291 last June. Median sales price is now $335,000 down slightly (1.5%) from $340,000 last June.

Inventory in El Dorado county is now at 8.7 months based on the last 12 months of sales and 8.4 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory is at 2.6 months.