Archive for February, 2009

Orangevale Real Estate Market Update: January 2009

More home buyers seem to be gravitating towards non-distressed homes today than a year ago. Surprised? Well, at least that seems to be the case in Orangevale. Non-distressed homes sales have seen an 80% increase year over year, along with foreclosures and short sales. A total of 22 homes sold in Orangevale this January: 10 foreclosures, 3 short sales and the aforementioned 9 non-distressed homes. That’s an overall increase in sales year over year of 69.2%.

Incidentally, the average home sold in Orangevale this January is also 25% bigger than the home sold in January of 2008. The reason for this is perhaps the fallen prices. Average price per square foot is now 23% under last January’s $205.90. It is currently $158.70. Average sales price is down 4.7% year over year – but remember the more accurate measure is price per square foot. Average sales price is currently $290,434, down from $304,847 last January. Median price is down 2.1% from a high of $268,107 to $262,500 for the same period.

Inventory is at 5.3 months (based on the last 12 months of sales) and 5.2 months (based on the last six months of sales.)

Downtown Sacramento Real Estate Market Update: January 2009

After a slow December, downtown Sacramento has had a slower January with the real estate market all but halting to a complete standstill. One wonders if this is a result of the uncertainty in the market or buyers are just not seeing any deals around. A total of 4 homes sold in downtown Sacramento this January – 1 foreclosure and 3 non-distressed houses. No short sales sold although there are currently 11 short sales on the market. Overall sales are down 63.6% year over year.

Prices are down as well. The average sold price per square foot has fallen from $278.63 to $172.98 – a drop of 38% year over year. Average sales price has fallen 33.4% from $387,545 to $258,000. Median sales price has also fallen from $330,000 to $208,500. That’s a fall from grace of 36.8% for the same period. Interestingly, home buyers have been able to afford homes 7.2% bigger than last year’s sold homes.

Based on the last year of sales, inventory is at 5.7 months and based on the last six months of sales, inventory is at 6.3 months.

Arden-Arcade Real Estate Market Update: January 2009

The numbers for real estate sales in the Arden Arcade area of Sacramento would stay pretty much the same as last year if it wasn’t for the foreclosures. We see almost the same number of short sales year over year and almost the same number of non-distressed sales year over year: 7 over 4 and 22 over 19, respectively. What is vastly different in the real estate landscape this year is the number of foreclosure sales: 47 this year over a mere 20 last year at the same time.

So it is no wonder that overall sales are up this January by 76.7% year over year. A total of 76 homes sold in the month of January as compared with just 43 last January.

Another effect foreclosure sales have on real estate is that they push prices down. We definitely see that in Arden-Arcade. Average price per square foot is down from $194.21 to $144.40 currently – that’s a drop of 25.6% year over year. Average sales price is also down 29.7% year over year from $305,053 to $214,451. Median sales price is down to $143,500 – a drop of 40.2% for the same period.

Inventory in Arden Arcade is at 4.6 months based on the last year of sales and 4.4 months based on the last six months of sales.

Folsom Real Estate Market Update: January 2009

The Folsom real estate market steadily seems to digest its short sales. And that might well be what homeowners in Folsom want in this current real estate time. Consider that short sales are up 500% year over year. Numerically, it just means that while only 1 short sale sold last year at this time, this time 6 closed escrow. Unfortunately, there are 102 currently on the market.

The rest of the real estate sales continue as they did last month: heavily leaning toward the distress sales but not completely overtaking non-distressed sales like we see elsewhere in Sacramento county. Besides the 6 short sales, we see that 19 foreclosures and 12 non-distressed homes also sold in the city of Folsom last month. So now two of three homes sold are distressed, whereas last month we saw that 1 out of 2 homes were distress sales.

Average sold price per square foot is now at $180.23 – that’s a decline of 11.3% over last January’s $203.19. Average sales price has fallen 15.5% from $423,061 to $357,374. Median sales price has also suffered a decline of 19% from a high of $399,250 to currently $322,000.

The sluggish sales are beginning to show in the inventory numbers. Based on the last 12 months of sales, we see that there is 4.5 months of inventory, a number we saw last month. However, based on the last 6 months of sales, inventory is currently at 5.3 months. Foreclosure inventory is at 1.8 months.

Elk Grove Real Estate Market Update: January 2009

The majority of home sales in Elk Grove continue to be distress sales. Foreclosures and short sales made up 90% of all real estate purchases in this city south of Sacramento in January. 163 foreclosures and 29 short sales easily outranked the 21 non-distressed homes. In fact, foreclosures sales have increased by 64.6% and short sales by 163.6% year over year. Non-distressed home sales have fallen by 34.4% for the same period. Overall unit sales are up 50%.

Average sold price per square foot has dropped 21.7% year over year from a high of $148.95 to $116.66. Average sales price has also dropped 20.8% year over year. The average home in Elk Grove, which would have cost you $316,984 last January would now be valued at $251,181. Median sales price has dropped 17% from $298,500 to rest at $248,000.

Inventory is at 3.6 months based on the last 12 months of sales and 3.5 months based on the last six months of sales. But foreclosure inventory is at 1 month. It seems like even in this market, Elk Grove can sell homes. It just depends where they are priced.

Fair Oaks Real Estate Market Update: January 2009

Homes in Fair Oaks continue to see a fairly strong demand. 15 foreclosures, 5 short sales and 7 non-distressed homes sold in this area in the month of January, leading to an overall unit volume increase of 42% year over year. Three-quarters of all sales are now distress sales, a fact that does not bode well for prices. As we see elsewhere, short sales have picked up momentum and are now almost equal in numbers to the non-distress sales.

Sold price per square foot in Fair Oaks fell again to rest at $149.02. This is a decline of 22% year over year from a high of $192.09. Average sales price has suffered a decline of 30% for the same period from $380,458 to $268,307. (However, the average home sold is also 10% smaller, so the more accurate number here is the average sold price per square foot.) Median sales price has also declined 24.2% from $293,000 to $222,100 for the same period.

Inventory is at 5.2 months based on the last year of sales and 4.9 months based on the last six months of sales.

El Dorado Hills Real Estate Market Update: January 2009

Even after seeing the average sales price rise above the half million dollar mark, home buyers still flocked to real estate in El Dorado Hills. And the bargain hunters probably found what they were looking for, since homes sold in January in the area are on average about 7.4% bigger than they were last year.

Unit sales volume is marginally up by 7.1% year over year. Of the 30 homes that sold in January, 15 were distressed (10 foreclosures and 5 short sales) and 15 were non-distressed, a nice balance there. Short sales should be watched – they were 500% higher, considering last January only saw one short sale close escrow.

Sold price per square foot has fallen yet again by 18.5% from $205.36. It currently rests at $167.31. Average sales price has also fallen 12.5% year over year from $612,584 last January to $536,140 this January. Median sales price for the same period shows a decline of 12.4% from a high of $515,000. It currently rests at $451,000.

Inventory in El Dorado Hills is at 7.3 months based on the last year of sales and 7.1 months based on the last six months of sales.

Land Park Real Estate Market Update: January 2009

After a prolific month in December 2008, the real estate market in Land Park seems to be taking a breather this month. We see a year over year decline in foreclosures and non-distressed sales and an overall decline in sales volume by 52.6% in January in this much coveted Sacramento neighborhood. The good news is that non-distressed sales still continue to sell – more than the foreclosure sales. 1 foreclosure, 2 short sales and 6 non-distressed homes sold this month in Land Park: a total of 9 homes.

Average sold price per square foot, which had been increasing month after month, suffered a decline this month. It is currently at $259.43, down 2.8% year over year from last January’s $266.92. (Last month it was $271.77) Average sales price also suffered a decline of 14.1% year over year from $428,387 to $368,050. I would go with the more accurate sold price per square foot this month however since the average home sold was also 10% smaller! Median sales price fell 27% year over year from $465,900 to rest at $340,000.

Inventory is at 3.6 months based on the last year of sales and 4 months based on the last 6 months of sales.

Rosemont Real Estate Market Update: January 2009

Home buyers can’t get enough of Rosemont. While elsewhere in Sacramento county sales are beginning to slow, Rosemont continues to surprise those of us that keep track of the numbers. Unit volume sales are still up 93% year over year. 39 foreclosures sold this month – that’s 72.2% of all sales, 10 short sales closed – that’s 18.5% of all sales, and 5 non-distressed homes also sold – a small 9.3% of all sales. Year over year, non-distressed sales have suffered a decline of 28.6% while foreclosures have gained 116.7% and short sales have gained 233% in sales year over year.

Sold price per square foot has declined 22.5% year over year, from $156.84 to today’s $121.56. The average sales price has fallen 26% year over year from $228,413 to $169,145. Median sales price has also dropped 23% for the same period from a high of $220,000 to $169,950.

Inventory in Rosemont is at 3.2 months based on the last 12 months of sales and 3.0 months based on the last 6 months of sales. Foreclosure inventory remains low at 1.2 months and 1.0 months for the same period.

Greenhaven Real Estate Market Update: January 2009

If it weren’t for the short sales looming over Greenhaven’s horizon, this market update would look a lot better. Don’t believe me? Read on for the mixed bag of news.

Unit volume has slowed down year over year. We have a 38% drop in sales from last January. While 21 homes last January, this year, we have 13. This 38% drop includes a decline not just in non-distressed sales as we see everywhere in Sacramento county but also a 50% decline in short sales and a 14.3% decline in foreclosure sales year over year. On the plus side, with 7 distress sales and 6 non-distressed homes closing escrow in January, Greenhaven is well-balanced in its real estate market.

Which perhaps leads to the good news – at least for now – in terms of prices. Sold price per square foot just a few cents off last month’s at $170.54. And the “few cents off” refers to a price increase. Overall, it still signifies a decline over last year’s sold price per square foot by 7.4%. The average sales price however shows a gain of 1% year over year. Last January’s number at $305,376 is lower than today’s $308,437. This is something we haven’t seen in a while. And no, you read that right. It is not a typo. Median sales price is the same as last month at $300,000 and year over year suffers a decline of 3.2%. Not bad at all.

Based on the last 12 months of sales, Greenhaven has 4.2 months of inventory and based on the last 6 months there is 4.9 months of inventory. Foreclosure inventory is at 1.5 months. It’s the short sales that are the bad news: 33 active on the market and they make up 19.8 and 22 months of inventory respectively!

Antelope Real Estate Market Update: January 2009

In terms of overall unit sales volume, Antelope is at almost the same spot today as it was last year at the same time. Call it the January doldrums if you will, but we have only a marginal improvement of 7.8% over last January’s sales. Even the 42 foreclosures that sold this January are nearly the same as last year (40). Year over year, the picture looks much the same, except for one big change. As with most other places in Sacramento county, we are beginning to see short sales finally beginning to sell. Short sales in Antelope show an increase of 200% year over year. This month, 9 short sales closed escrow, as compared with just 3 last January. Non-distressed sales show a drop of 50% year over year.

With prices as well, there’s nothing new. Current sold price per square foot is at $119.14, down 15.6% over last January’s sold price at $141.17. Average sales price is at $204,291 down 13.4% over last January’s $235,838. Median sales price in Antelope also shows a drop of 15% year over year from $240,000. It is currently $204,500.

With sales not changing much year over year, inventory is the same whether you look at the last 12 months of sales or the last 6 months. With both, we come up with 3.5 months of overall inventory and 0.8 months of foreclosure inventory.

El Dorado County Real Estate Market Update: January 2009

If El Dorado county is considered lackadaisical by most people who live in Sacramento county, real estate sales in it are following the same pattern. Still unit volume in sales continues to remain higher by 17% than it was last year at this time, although it is lower than last month’s volume of sales. Last month, 99 homes sold in the county of El Dorado. 89 homes sold this month: 48 foreclosure sales (53.9% of the total), 14 short sales (15.7% of the total) and 27 non-distressed homes (30.3% of total).

The greatest increase is in short sales: year over year, we see that short sales have gained 180% in sales. Foreclosures are a close second with a gain of 100% year over year. Non-distressed sales, not surprisingly have suffered a decline of 42.6% year over year.

All this, of course, means that prices have fallen yet again. Sold price per square foot is 20.1% lower this January than it was last January – a drop from $201.22 to $160.70. This is also lower than last month’s $167.17. Average sales price is also lower year over year by 23.4% – a decline from $466,770 to $357,349 currently. This is also lower than last month’s $368,912. Median sales price is down $426,000 to $295,000 – a fall of 31%. This is also lower, unfortunately, than last month’s $340,000.

Inventory remains almost unchanged from last month”s 9.8 and 9.3 months. Currently, we are at 9.7 months of inventory based on the last 12 months of sales and 9.8 months based on the last 6 months of sales. Last month’s 250 short sales have now increased to 267 active short sales. The active foreclosures remain almost the same in number at 174.

Sacramento County Real Estate Market Update: January 2009

Inventory in Sacramento county continues to shrink, albeit slowly, in the midst of continuing falling prices. That is the only silver lining to be found in the real estate numbers for Sacramento county this January. That, and the fact that unit volume remains high although it is lower than last month.

A total of 1628 homes sold in the month of January, 84% higher than last year at the same time. Of these 1238 (76%) were foreclosures and 171 (10.5%) were short sales. Thus sales are heavily bent in the direction of distress sales. Not surprisingly, non-distressed sales suffered a decline of 26% year over year. Only 219 non-distressed homes sold this January, that is 13.5% of the total sales. Foreclosures have gained momentum – 133% more sales this year than the last at the same time and 200% more sales in short sales this year for the same period.

Meanwhile, the price declines continue. Sold price per square foot has dropped another $5 – $6 from last month’s $120.64 to rest at $114.86. That is a drop of 29% year over year. Average sales price has dropped 32.4% year over year from a high of $270,639 to rest at $182,861. This is also lower than last month’s $192,773. Median price has also suffered a loss of 36.3% year over year from a high of $251,000 to $160,000. Last month, the median price for Sacramento county was $170,000.

Inventory has shrunk a little further to 4 months and 3.7 months depending on whether you’re looking at 12 months of sales or 6 months. Foreclosure inventory has shrunk to 1.5 and 1.3 months respectively; this is lower than last month’s 1.9 and 1.7 months.

Things your Realtor® Should Tell You

If you are home buyer in this market, your Realtor® should tell you these three things:

1. Short sales are selling, BUT they remain an exercise in patience

Statistically, we are seeing many short sales close. In fact, year over year, as reported we are seeing an unprecedented increase in sold short sales. However, I suggest that home buyers still stay cautious. What we don’t know is how long these escrows have been open and how long each one is taking to actually close. Anecdotally, they are taking anywhere from 45 to 60 days to get an acceptance from the bank. You can expect to add another 30 – 45 days to actually get your own loan and the escrow to close. So this can be, as you see, a long time. The days of making an offer and moving into your home 30 – 35 days later are gone. At least when it comes to short sales. So, be advised, home buyers, and learn patience. It isn’t easy, of course when you’re waiting to hear back and then hear a no or a maybe from the bank, but be prepared for it. And don’t get too attached to the home until you have a definite yes!

2. Many REOs are underpriced

Many first time home buyers seem to be having trouble with this fact. They read everywhere that homes are cheap and then they find an REO that seems like an incredible deal. Well, okay, they say, that works. And then they offer the asking price. After making these offers on about five to six homes they lose hope and decide to wait until the market gets better. What happened? The bank was underpricing the homes. The banks assume buyers are getting CMAs and they’re playing the game with them. Realtors® would do well to tell you this, but sometimes they worry that you might think they’re trying to get you to offer more and therefore are not on your side. However, I believe they are doing you a disservice if they don’t tell you that the home is underpriced. If you walk into a pristine home and the price is too good to be true, remember that it probably is! REOs are underpriced by banks and lenders in the hope that they will receive multiple offers and the ultimate price they get for the home is much, much higher.

3. This is a good market, but…

…you must be prepared. Make sure you know the area you are buying in, and get a CMA from your Realtor®. Most importantly, before you even go shopping ensure that you are pre-approved, have spoken to a lender and have the down payment set aside. This market provides incredible opportunities for the home buyer who is prepared to pounce on the right home, but if you are not ready the chance might just pass you by. If you are even considering buying a home today, the first step is to speak with a lender. Check your credit, get pre-approved, know what your payments will be every month and work backwards until you know the price you can afford. Only then, head out to look with a buyer’s agent you trust.

Good luck!