Antelope Stampede — Are Prices Bottoming Out?
I’m not much of an ungulate expert. Do Antelope stampede?
Either way, stampede is an apt metaphor for the demand for homes in Antelope in recent months.
Consider:
- Based on the last twelve months of sales, there are 5.7 months of inventory (into the seller’s market category). Based on high absorption rate of the last six months, that number is even lower, at 4.5 months of total inventory. Of course, this is a “seller’s market” if you’re a bank — some 85.5% of the sales in July were distressed sales.
- Unit volume has more than doubled over the last year. It is up 143%, from 37 units sold in June of 2007 to 90 units sold in July of 2008.
- The average home that sold in Antelope in June listed for $221,566 and sold for $224,261, i.e., 1.2% over full price.
- There are only seventy-one bank owned homes in inventory now, slightly more than the sixty-seven that sold in June.
- To date, July’s sold price per square foot has increased from the number in June. June’s sold price per square foot was $136.68, while in July the number so far is $139.80.
We will have to wait until August to see if prices have indeed started to climb, and it will take several months longer to prove it. However, much as I would love to call the bottom, I think we may see a more decreases in Antelope as Sacramento County’s overall prices fall.
However, with 1.4 months of foreclosure inventory and only enough distressed sales overall to feed less than four months of demand, it’s possible we may see prices fluctuate for several months before starting to rise in earnest.
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