Sacramento Real Estate Blog

Happy Halloween everyone! And if you’re wondering what’s the scariest thing on most home buyers’ minds today, you’ve come to the right place for an answer. Although most buyers are excited about the opportunities REOs (foreclosures - REO stands for Real Estate Owned by a bank, for the uninitiated) present in today’s real estate market, especially in the greater Sacramento area, I find that many are also concerned about buying a home that can have many unseen problems which may not show up until long after escrow closes. Today, I am here to address some of their concerns. Boo!

How a Home becomes an REO
As explained earlier, an REO is a foreclosure. When you buy a home in California, unless you pay cash for it, chances are you will have to finance the purchase. A home is financed in much the same way a car is financed - you sign legal documents called “a note” for a loan. The lender gives you the money which you agree to pay back with interest over a term of (usually) 30 years. If you default on the loan, the lender can then take the home back and sell it to someone else. The legal process of taking the home back for default on a note is called foreclosure. Although the process in California includes a trustee who is given the note and who is notified by the lender to begin foreclosure proceedings in the event of non-payment the basic idea remains the same: default on the mortgage and lose the home.

The lender is required by law to send a homebuyer who has defaulted on the loan a Notice of Default. This notice is recorded at the county clerk recorder’s office in the county where the property is located and is a document of public record. This means that anyone with an interest in the property may see it. The notice states when the lender is planning on foreclosing, ie. the date of the trustee’s sale and the outstanding amount the homeowner can pay to cure the default and stop the trustee’s sale.

Usually, as you can imagine, the default is not cured and the trustee auctions the property to anyone who will buy it. If there are no buyers at the trustee’s sale, the house becomes a foreclosure and is referred to as an REO - real estate owned by the lender.

What you should Know about an REO as a Homebuyer

Most lenders are not in the business of real estate; they are in the business of finance. And so, the house acquired by a bank through a foreclosure is usually put back on the open market. To come up for a sales price for the property, the bank hires a Realtor® and asks for a BPO - a Broker Price Opinion. The Realtor® appraises the property based on similar properties also known as “comps” and offers to list it. Since most foreclosures are fixers, they are usually placed on the market for a substantially discounted price.

As a home buyer of a bank owned home, your concerns are justified. An REO is usually a fixer. The most obvious reason for this being the family that was foreclosed upon was low on finances. If they didn’t have enough to make their mortgage payments, chances are there are quite a few things about the house that went unrepaired. This is also called deferred maintenance. Deferred maintanence can be a small problem, like a leaky faucet, or can hide bigger problems, like a leaky faucet that rotted the bathroom sub-floor.

You should also be aware that as a purchaser of an REO, you don’t receive full disclosure about the house. The bank is not required to provide you with a Transfer Disclosure Statement, partially because the lenders have never been in the home and are unaware of what exactly is wrong with it. They are also unaware of other problems a property may have, like boundary line disputes, and are unable to let you know if, say, there has been a death on the property.

How to Resolve your Concerns

Does this mean you are left completely at the mercy of Chance when you decide to buy a foreclosure? Sure, the price is deeply discounted, but does that make up for everything else? While that may be a question only you and your pocketbook might be able to answer, here is the most important pointer to take the sting out of potential problems: Always, always, always get the inspections!

Brokers recommend a variety of inspections, including pest, roof, septic system and a complete home inspection. Disregarding any of these inspections can be a big mistake on the part of a homebuyer. While most banks will not repair any items listed as potential or real problems during these inspections, you can get an idea of how much work is involved in making the home as habitable as you want it and decide if the asking price is worth the risk and work involved. The price you pay for the inspections (approximately $1000 for all included) is well worth its weight in gold.

You, The Smart Homebuyer

Okay, great! So you got the inspections done! The home seems structurally sound, but it looks like the roof can’t be certified. Can you knock off $10,000 from the asking price because the lender won’t put a new roof on? Not so fast! You should take into account the fact that the lender has already figured deferred maintenance into the price of the house. While there is no overt harm in making a lowball offer, you should also apply the comps in the neighborhood and balance them against your own timeline and budget for a house. Also remember that escrows today take longer (45 to 60 days as opposed to the 30 days from a while ago) because lenders are more careful about checking documentation.

With so many bargains out there in foreclosures, if you are serious about buying a home at a deeply discounted price, chances are you will find what you are looking for. So, go ahead. Get the facts, look hard and deep and don’t be scared to make an offer when you find the right one!

While I was having my early morning cappuccino today, made with a rather indulgent birthday gift I gave my husband, this impassioned email sent to us by someone who had been to our website caught my eye:

“Their loss is your gain” Very tacky marketing! We loved that home & left it in great condition. We worked with your representive [sic], I actually that [sic] about sending her a thank you note. Were [sic] is your empathy! I truly hope someone can purchase the home that I designed & finish it right. I hope that you are happy that your posting sent me & my family into tears again. OUR LOSS? Yes we did have a loss I am sure you do not care about exactly what our loss was/is. Did it occor [sic] to to [sic] that terminal illness could have played a roll [sic]? You should think again before marketing a foreclosed home in such a ruthless way.

I hurried off a reply explaining that the marketing was not ours. We never use tacky terms like that and are hugely empathetic to sellers in this market, especially ones that have ended up in a foreclosure / short sale situation through no fault of their own and genuine financial hardship. Unfortunately, there are so many others that simply want out of their homes because they are so called “upside down” in them that even the banks are having a hard time distinguishing between the genuine cases and the ones that just sick of falling house values.

So let me reiterate: this post is for those with genuine financial hardship. Here are some of the steps you can take before you decide to walk away from your home.

Determine if there is Genuine Hardship: As I mentioned earlier, some people in this market simply want out of their homes and the mortgage agreement because they see the value depreciating. Depreciating value in itself is not a reason for the bank to accept a short sale. You must prove genuine financial hardship. Remember that the mortgage agreement you signed when you bought the home is a contract and letting someone out of a contract requires a strong reason. Depreciating value of an asset is in itself not a good enough reason.

Get on the Phone: The single biggest mistake people make when they are beginning to have trouble making payments is to avoid all phone calls. As a landlord, if the rent doesn’t get to me in the specified time and the tenant does not call, it is my first red flag. I can tolerate the rent being late for a long time if there is communication. Your mortgage holders have the same thinking. They really don’t want to foreclose. They just want the payment. So, your first response to a difficult financial situation should be to call your creditors. That would include your credit card companies, the IRS, your mortgage holders and so on. You might be able to get your mortgage holders to rewrite the loan (and have a different monthly payment and terms) and stay in your home.

Keep in mind also that a home is a secured debt, which means it is secured by your house. If you stop making payments, the mortgage holder can take your home. Your credit cards are unsecured debt. If you stop making payments on those, the credit card companies cannot technically come after your home. If you have the stomach for it, you can keep your home and see about negotiating with other creditors.

Begin Building a Case: A banking job is very paperwork-heavy. Remember the thick stack of documents you signed as a home buyer? Well, to get out of it, the stack will be just as thick. Start collecting any and all documentation of your hardship. Collect bank statements for the last entire year, tax returns for the last five years, pay stubs for the last year and all other documentation you have which shows and documents the reasons for your hardship. This may include a letter from your employer if you have lost your job, a medical letter if you have a disability or illness, medical bills, IRS bills - anything to establish in the eyes of the negotiator that you are not someone who simply wants out. A paper trail is very important to a successful short sale.

Start Looking for an Apartment or Rental Home: Do not plan on living in the house until the date of the foreclosure. While this might seem like a good idea on the surface because you are not making mortgage payments and getting free rent, remember that every month of a missed mortgage payment hurts your credit score - something most landlords check when you apply for a place to live in. Even if the short sale does not go through, you will have to leave and need a replacement place to stay. There is no doubt about that. Your credit is going to be in a downward spin. The smartest thing you can do now is get a place to live and explain to the landlord that you are losing your home.

Try to get an Approval or a Dollar Amount: This is unfortunately the toughest part of a short sale. Before you call a Realtor®, send in the paperwork to the bank and try to get an idea of what price they will accept. Lenders are notorious for not telling you their price and having you wait for an offer before they send someone out for a broker price opinion. The problem with this approach is that the buyers tend to get tired of waiting and walk away. If you can get the bank to send someone out before an offer comes in, it saves time (lesser time also means your credit will be hurt less) and you are more likely to get a home buyer to make an offer. This does require that your paperwork be complete however, so make sure to get that sent into the bank and follow up with them.

Call a Realtor®: At this point, all a Realtor® has to do is advertise your house as an approved short sale, be open to an offer and send it over to the bank for final approval. Approved short sales can close in less than sixty days. Also remember that you do not have to pay either Realtor®, as would be the case in a traditional sale where the seller pays the Realtors® involved. In this case, the lender would be the one making the payment for services rendered. That is why the lender will often ask for a net sheet from a title company before the final approval is issued.

Don’t Forget your Accountant! Your short sale or foreclosure may have tax ramifications and perhaps legal ones as well. Be sure to talk with your tax preparer and attorney regarding these. Deciding to walk away from your home is a difficult and painful process - one that we hope you never have to do. But if it is inevitable, I hope the tips in this post help.

Greetings, market statistics fans!  Straighten up those pocket protectors and hang on to your slide rules, because it’s time once again for us to catch up on our REM sleep with yet another thrilling installment of our never-ending saga:  Sacramento (County) Real Estate Market Updates!

And the crowds went wild.

The good news:  905 units sold in February, up some ten per cent from January.  Unit volume was even up marginally from last February — and, yes, this still holds true when you adjust for the leap year.  February’s unit volume was the highest since last July, when 977 units sold.

The average home sold for $273,603 in February, up slightly over January’s average of $269,301, but down 29.9% from last February’s average sale price of $390,043.  The median sale price of $249,000 was down 29.2% from last February’s median of $353,000.  Sold price per square foot is down 28.8% from February to February, at $162.76 this year versus $228.63 last year.

The 905 units that sold in February is not bad for a late winter month where the average over the preceding twelve months was 968 units per month.  Currently there are 9,866 homes on the market, which works out to be 10.2 months of inventory.  33.9% of the homes in active inventory are short sales, but as we’ve reported earlier and a variety of our colleagues in other markets have reported since, the closing rate for short sales is much lower, at 6.6% in February.  Bank foreclosures (REOs), in contrast, make up 28% of the current active inventory (2,763 of the 9,866 available units), but in February they accounted for 59.2% of the homes that sold in Sacramento County (542 out of 905 total sales).

Related links:

We’ve updated our listings database.  It was getting pretty long in the tooth there.

Most people who are users of our web site(s) probably don’t know it, but many of our web sites including this one, our Roseville real estate site and our Elite Properties company site actually rely on two different databases of listings.  When you use our search page, for example, you’re using a listings database that’s our IDX company gets from our Metrolist database.  These listings are updated daily, so when you do a search, you’re looking at listings that are within twenty-four hours of being as current as the ones that we as Realtors® can look at..

In addition to the search tools that our IDX company provides, however, we also wanted to allow you to browse for certain types of listings.  One thing our IDX system doesn’t do, for example, is show you short sales and foreclosures.  Because we don’t have direct access to the database our IDX company uses, we’ve created a second database that we can use in various ways.

For example, our foreclosure search page lets you search for foreclosures and short sales, or browse them by county.  Similarly our new homes section let’s you see homes that have just been built that are listed in the MLS, and our condo pages contain links to condos grouped by price and county.

As we mentioned above, we’ve also used this database on some of our other sites.  Many clients find us through our the maps of listings by zip code that we maintain on our company site.  These maps include zip codes in El Dorado County, Placer County, and Sacramento County.  Within each zip code you can find active listings and get recent market data.  We publish similar data for Placer County only on our Roseville site.

Unlike our IDX system, which is updated automatically on a daily basis, these other resources are updated manually as time permits.

We realize that from a software perspective, that’s not the brightest way to do it.  But if you’ve ever tried to get someone from Metrolist to call you back about a data feed, you probably have a good idea that it’s not half-dumb from an organizational perspective.

The good news is, it’s up to date now.  So as my wife is fond of saying, “Get your red hot houses here!”

Enjoy.

Related links:

I took a few minutes today to look at the discounts for short sales and foreclosures based simply on list prices.  In other words — how much are they discounted before you negotiate with the seller? 

Foreclosures may have a little more negotiating room between list price and sale price, but not as much as you may think.  The reason is that homes that are priced well to begin with tend to get more competition, so even in the case of bank owned foreclosures, buyers typically only negotiate something between 5-6% off the list price for foreclosures, as compared to about 4% for all sales.

The real bulk of the discounts for foreclosures and short sales already appears in the MLS.

So with that, let’s look at the results.  How much are foreclosures and short sales discounted in Sacramento County?

In active inventory, the list price for non-distressed sales are currently averaging $228.62 per square foot.  Short sales are discounted, on average, 27.8%, with the average list price for short sales being $165.00 per square foot.  Foreclosures are discounted even more — 36% compared to non-distressed sales — with the average REO in Sacramento County currently listed at $146.19 per square foot.

One caveat, however.  If you look at short sales and foreclosures on a neighborhood by neighborhood basis, you generally see foreclosures still having better discounts than short sales — but the overall magnitude of the discounts are somewhat less than they are when you look at the entire county.  This is because part of the 27.8% and 36% numbers reported above reflects the fact that in many cases more expensive areas also have fewer foreclosures. 

In Antelope, for example, Short Sales are currently listed at a discount of 26.3%, and foreclosures are currently discounted 30%, from their non-distressed counterparts.

“Only” 30% off?  That’s still not bad!

Related links:

In our Sacramento Real Estate Market Update for January, Part I, I began rounding up the usual statistical suspects, but I decided to leave some of them to a future post, since I wanted to spend some time in part one having a discussion about the recent upsurge in demand.

Left out of part one was a discussion of where we are with respect to foreclosures and short sales. In January of 2007, foreclosures and short sales collectively made up only 7.3% of all sales. Foreclosures accounted for 4.6% of all sales, while short sales accounted for 2.7% of all sales. That’s about one home in every thirteen.

In January of 2008, in contrast, foreclosures and short sales accounted for 67%, or just over two out of every three sold homes. Of these, the vast majority are foreclosures, which accounted for 60.5% of the total sales in January, even though they only make up 27.5% of the current active inventory. Short sales make up even more of the active inventory at 32.1%, but in January only 6.5% of closed transactions were short sales.

Related links:

I’ve been thinking about all the news about foreclosures.  I work here in the greater Sacramento area.  Though I live in El Dorado County, which (along with Placer County) has experienced relatively few foreclosures, Sacramento County currently has more than fifty per-cent short sales and foreclosures in inventory.  Now granted, that’s not necessarily a huge number compared to all the homes in the area, since obviously being in financial trouble triggers a sale — most folks who own homes aren’t in foreclosure, and aren’t selling at any given time.  Still, it’s enough to get my attention.

A caricature of Realtors® is that we’re always pushing home ownership on unsuspecting victims.  I think the general consensus lies somewhere between the idea that we have hypnotic powers of persuasion to lure our victims into contracts they don’t want (much like the famous Hypnotoad, shown at right) or — less charitably — that we hit people over the head with shovels to get them into our cars, then take it from there.

Those Educated Internet Buyers - What’s a Poor Hypnotoad to Do?

Unfortunately, your standard Jedi / Hypnotoad mind tricks only work on the weak minded.  Most people I meet here on the Internet have too many information resources at their disposal to be an easy mark for these unscrupulous amphibians.  That’s probably why none of my buyers has (to my knowledge) ended up in foreclosure yet. 

Still, there may be some of you out there who are just itching to do it, so for those of you with a real hankering to financially self destruct, here are . . .

Ten Easy Steps to Foreclosure

1. State your income. 
   You may have heard that stated income loans are for the self-employed.  Don’t you believe it!  Full doc loans are harder to do so your lender doesn’t like them, and I know you want things to go smoothly for your lender out of gratitude for the wonderful loan he’s getting you, right?  And you don’t mind paying the extra half point or so to go stated, do you?  While you’re at it, forget about the fact that overstating your income is loan fraud, a federal crime.  A smart buyer like you isn’t afraid of some wimps at the FBI, are you?  The more you say you make, the nicer house you can get.  That’s why they call them “liars’ loans”, after all.
2. Don’t Pay To Run Your Own Credit - Your Lender Will Do It FREE!
   Here’s the thing.  If you run your own credit, you might conceivably talk one or more loan officers into checking into different loan programs for you.  That’s not good.  This might educate you as a consumer, and you might find eventually bump into a lender who’ll explain things to you.  Learning is the first step on the road to making stupid loan payments on a conservative loan package.  How are you going to get foreclosed on if you make loan payments?  Huh?  Plus, running your own credit doesn’t count as an inquiry, and your loan officer is counting on you worrying about making multiple inquiries, so letting them do it free for you locks you in quite nicely, doesn’t it?  So stay away from sites like MyFico.com.  I’m not even going to link to them because you’ll only end up running your credit and getting confused.
3. If your lender tells you you can afford the house, you can afford the house.
   Although most knowledgeable foreclosure-philes generally frown on talking to more than one lender because one or more of them might turn out to be ethical, one thing you should do is get as many opinions as you can about how much house you can afford, and go with the highest amount.  You’ll get a much nicer house that way.  If someone in your family has a calculator or spreadsheet or other budgeting tool and suggests a lower amount, you should argue with her until you get the most house that that nice lender said you could.  In fact, you should probably be looking at homes that cost more than that, because you can always talk the seller down.   And maybe you’ll see something you like even better that way.
4. Always remember:  your lender can refinance you later.
   Remember, the market’s going up! Up!  Up!  Sure, it’s going down now, but it’s going up in a few minutes.  (I think I heard it’ll be fine by Wednesday.)  The reason you don’t need to figure out a conservative loan that you can live with is that the market’s going up, and if you refinance later you can buy more house now!  Wasn’t it nice of that nice lender to tell you that you could refinance later?  He must really be trying to help you by offering to do that extra loan for you.  That stupid lender who said you could afford less house was only going to do one loan, and didn’t even offer to refinance you later.  He must just be lazy.
5. Refinance early, refinance often.
   Now that you have a really killer house, do you really still want to be seen driving that old broken down car of yours?  You have this great big garage, and all you’ve got to show for it is a five year old import.  You have some equity now.  Don’t you deserve a Hummer?  Besides, your equity’s not doing you any good unless you put it to use.  You’ve already by now picked out a hard working lender who generously doesn’t mind refinancing you, so go for the gusto!  You only live once.
6. Remember, the market will go UP!
   And of course, it’ll go up just in time!  So you don’t need a conservative loan.  In fact, come to think of it, hopefully you bought when the market was going up.  You don’t want to buy when prices are low, because good heavens, they may get lower (and what would your friends say to that).  Plus, if the market’s going down, the best way to pay for your house is with some kind of boring loan, and you won’t be able to refinance or get yourself a Hummer.  If you learn how to get foreclosed on, you can buy high when homes are popular, and then you won’t have to sell low, because the nice people at the bank will sell it for you.
7. If you can afford the lowest payment, you can afford the house.
   One of the great financial instruments of the twentieth century was the Option Arm, or “Pick-a-Pay” loan.  You may have heard that they’re appropriate for the self employed too, or for people whose cash flow varies.  But you’re not going to believe that either, are you?  (See “State Your Income”).  With a pick-a-pay loan, you get to pay either a lot of money on the loan, or just a little bit of money on the loan.  You’re not going to be a chump and pick the fully amortized 15 or 30-year fixed payment, are you?  That payment will be huge!  You won’t be able to buy as much house that way!  You might have to settle for a lousy older home or condo or rent for a few more years while you save.  Through the miracle of Negative Amortization, you can own the big brand new mansion you really want now!
8. Never mind what negative amortization means.
   You don’t need to know what negative amortization means.  “Negative” and “mort” — anything that sounds THAT depressing isn’t something an upbeat mansion-owner like you should spend time on.  You shouldn’t worry about it anyway, because the amount of negative amortization on the loan is limited, and you’ll still have the loan when you hit the limit.  I want you all to stop worrying about negative amortization right now, and never, ever, ever, look it up.  Also while you’re not looking things up, don’t look up what happens when you hit the limit.
9. The best thing to do with a document you don’t understand is sign it.
   The quicker you sign, the quicker you’ll get the keys to your new house!  Do you want to move in and throw a party for your friends, or do you want to waste your life reading and asking philosophical questions?
10. While we’re on the subject of reading…
    There are books on Amazon.com and lots of great consumer web sites that talk about loan programs, managing money, etc., but hopefully by now you’ve learned enough about ruining your credit to avoid all that highbrow academic stuff and get down to the real fun of shopping for the absolute most house you can afford, with a big garage for your new SUV!  Besides, reading makes you sleepy.

(This shouldn’t be necessary, but here it is:  You should be afraid of the FBI, and loan fraud is a serious crime.  This article is meant to be humorous and tongue in cheek only, and instructive only in a reverse-psychology sort of way).

Depending on where you focus your attention, there’s news, there’s good news, and there’s bad news.

We began our look back on Sacramento County real estate in 2007 with a look at the overall “big picture” for the Sacramento County Real Estate Market for the entire year. Later last week, we reported on one area in the county market that’s consistently held it’s value better than others and enjoy’s low inventory and brisk sales, East Sacramento.

This week we turn our attention to an area that may well be the “worst case” in terms of rising inventory and price declines for Sacramento County, Sacramento’s Franklin / Freeport area (95823). I should probably point out before we begin that I have not sampled all the MLS areas, so my sense that Franklin / Freeport may be the worst case comes from the foreclosure numbers. There may be other areas that have fewer foreclosures but more inventory or lower prices, for example.

Franklin’s decline in 2007 has been rapid. Comparing full year numbers first, the average price lost 19.2% of its value from year to year, and dropped 21.1% in terms of sold price per square foot. The median sale price in 2006 was $314,850, in 2007 it fell 20.6% to $250,000. In 2006 one per cent of sales in Franklin were foreclosures. In 2007, that number was 41.6%.

Comparing December of 2007 to December of 2006, we find that by December, the trend of selling more and more foreclosures and deep price drops had continued apace. By the end of 2006 the average sale price was $282,327. A year later the average had fallen 34.9% to $183,914. Another way to say this is that the average home in Franklin lost slightly more than 1/3 of its value in a year. On a sold price per square foot basis, Franklin closed out 2006 at $200.21 per square foot, and had fallen to $126.61 a year later, a decline of 35.8%.

The percentages of short sales and foreclosures available in Franklin / Freeport are staggering. Almost three fourths (73.9%) of inventory in Franklin / Freeport is either a short sale (35.9%) or foreclosure (38.1%). At the same time, if you needed a case study of REOs outselling short sales, Franklin / Freeport is it. Last month no short sales closed, but twenty-five of the twenty-nine closed sales in the area were bank owned properties. That works out to 86.2%, or close to 7/8 of all sales.

The contrast between East Sacramento on the one hand and Franklin / Freeport on the other shows how local real estate markets are. East Sac enjoys less than three months of inventory and a brisk seller’s market where the prices have remained flat while nationwide prices are falling, while Franklin / Freeport currently has almost two years (23.6 months) of inventory, and homes there have lost two thirds of it’s value in a year.

If you’re a buyer or seller, the right question to ask is not “How’s the Market” overall, but “How’s the Market” for your particular area. Is there an area you’re interested in particularly? If so please contact us and we’d be happy to get you specific market data or comparable sales.

Related links:

In movies, 2007 was the year of the threequel.  Sensibly enough, Beyonce Knowles was the year’s most desirable woman (I’ve been saying that since 2006, at least).  Al Gore won the Nobel Peace Prize, while the arctic ice cap melted at an alarming rate.

In Sacramento real estate, I’ll remember 2007 as the year when those of us who entered the business early in the decade learned the mechanics of selling short sales and foreclosures. 2007 was the year of the foreclosure in Sacramento County. 

This chart shows the number of foreclosures sold month by month through November of 2007 in blue.  The short sales are shown in pink.

Short Sale “Time Lag”?

About a month ago, a reader responded to my post about the dismally low closing rate for short sales by remarking that my analysis failed to account for the fact that short sales take longer than foreclosures to sell.

The chart above does not show short sales lagging behind foreclosures by the 1-3 months it takes to sell them.  It shows a steady increase in the number of REOs sold.  REOs broke the 10% barrier in April, and short sales have yet to rise above 6%.  The longest short sale I’ve done took four months — sometimes we can close them in 30-60 days.  If short sales were lagging four months behind, not just failing to close, there should be at least 18% of them closing every month by now.

Another problem with this argument is this.  Yes, short sales take longer, but the short sale step also happens before the bank owns the property.  So these sales take longer, but they also start earlier, so the longer sale should be a wash, and clearly the numbers above show that it isn’t.

Related links:

The numbers are in for November.  As we get into what’s usually a slow time of year, unit volume is continuing to rise slowly from September and October, with 809 units selling as against October’s 803 and September’s rather bleak 709 units.  Buyers are beginning to take advantage of the bargains offered by short sales and REOs (bank foreclosures) in inventory, which collectively account for just over 50% of active listings (REOs make up 24%, while short sales comprise 26.5% of inventory).

The average home sold for $323,772 in November, down 15.2% from last November’s average of $381,666.  Average sold price per square foot is off 16.6% from a year ago, at 188.35% versus last year’s $225.97.  The median sale price in November was $293,000, down 15.1% from last November’s median of $345,000.  Unit volume is off 25.7% compared to last year, but as we mentioned earlier, is strong compared to recent months.

There are 11.21 months of unsold inventory at present in Sacramento County, down from last month’s figure of 11.61 months.

Related links:

The one and only Sacramento Real Estate Gal, Purva Brown, recently called my attention to some really important information for buyers about short sales — their abysmal closing rate.

Many readers of the blog will no doubt already know that a short sale is a sale where the seller has insufficient funds to pay off the loan(s) on the property, and has asked the lender to allow the sale to continue but approve a reduced pay-off instead of going through foreclosure.  Like homes that are already owned by the bank (REOs), short sales are often discounted compared to other homes.

Unlike REO’s — however — there’s a problem.  It’s harder to tell exactly where the problem is than it is to tell you the numbers.  In Sacramento County, for example, as of late November, 2007 short sales accounted for 2,890 of the 11,053 active listings — 26.1%.  At the same time, 16.8% of all listings marked pending sale (in escrow but not yet closed) were short sales.  The pending sales data, moreover, may tend to underreport short sales, since many listing agents will continue to list the home as active until the lender has approved the sale — or even beyond this point.  (Indeed, this practice is common enough that it’s become the subject of an MLS rule prohibiting the practice).

OK, so how many of these short sale transactions are closing?  In October, the number was only 3.8% of sales — so far in November, that number has only risen to only 5.3%.

5.3% of sales, versus 16.8% of pending sales.  In other words, two out of every three short sales transactions (or more) fail to close escrow.

Why the low numbers?

• First of all, understand that the lender doesn’t have to approve the transaction.  They can always foreclose.
• Sometimes buyers find out in the process that short sales are not for them.  When it takes a month or two or longer to get a short sale buyer, many’s the buyer (we’ve worked with some) who’ve simply lost patience or couldn’t wait because of their situation.
• I’ve seen cases where short sales were listed where the buyer was not even behind in their payments.  As a buyer, have your agent ask about the status of the seller.  If they’re not behind in payments, and if there’s not an adequate hardship, the chances of the lender approving the transaction trail off to something pretty close to zero.  Chances are that a large percentage of short sales shouldn’t even be listed.

Can you avoid the short sales and still get a bargain property?  Absolutely!  If you focus on the REOs — bank owned foreclosures — you’ll find homes that are typically priced below the short sales and are much easier to own.  When you look at REOs, the number of homes that close compared to the number that are for sale is actually higher, not lower.  For example, it’s not uncommon to see 12% REOs in inventory, but 25% in the sold statistics (about twice as many).

Related links:

Traditionally, home shopping falls flat during the holidays. We slow down during Halloween and then Thanksgiving comes around and we hit a dead spot. This year however, I think business is going to continue, albeit at a slower pace.

If you’re considering buying a home this winter, count yourself among the lucky ones. Why?

1. Inventory is high - The number of foreclosures make for scary news for sellers because they have to compete with bank-owned homes and you, lucky buyer, have lots of homes to look at to find the perfect one! You can find a complete list of foreclosures in Sacramento county here.

2. There are no recreational sellers out there - During the big real estate boom, a lot of sellers wanted a certain amount for their home before they would sell their home. Today, if a home is on the market, chances are they want to sell and will do whatever it takes to negotiate a sale with you.

3. There are huge discounts in price - There was a time when homes had trouble appraising and hence getting a loan for the home was hard. Today, if you find a great deal, the appraisal might just come in 10% over the price you’re in escrow for. Congratulations - you just “made” 10% of the sales price by just buying the home!

So head out there and let the shopping begin. Remember, you don’t have to restrict yourself to just retail gifts this winter. Housing is selling at wholesale prices!

We’ve just updated the listing database that feed the specialized areas of our web site for foreclosures, new homes, and condos.

For some time now we’ve made available the number of active foreclosures by area in Sacramento County, but one thing I didn’t like about that list is that it only gives you raw numbers of foreclosures available, so naturally this is going to tend to show more foreclosures for areas where there are just more homes. 

To give you a better idea of what the actual percentages are, I’ve put together the following table, which shows the percentages of bank-owned foreclosures in active inventory for different areas in Sacramento County.  In other words, barring any possible data import errors, this is a rough guide to the number of unsold foreclosures as a percentage of all unsold homes for these areas in Sacramento County.

Related links:

Purva recently wrote some excellent advice for home sellers in Natomas, and nearby Antelope home sellers.  Based on October’s real estate statistics, I would suggest that nearby Antelope sellers also need to seriously consider how competitive their home is compared to the many foreclosures that are on the market.

In October, bank owned foreclosures (also called REOs for “real estate owned”) accounted for fully 47.5% of sales in Antelope (95843).   In October of 2006, none of the forty-six homes that sold were REOs.  In October of 2007, forty units sold and nineteen of them were REOs (hence 47.5%).  As in other areas, foreclosures outsold non-foreclosed properties by almost two to one.  Even though they accounted for just under half of sales, REOs constitute just over one quarter (25.7%) of the inventory.

Moreover, Antelope is no exception to the general rule we’ve that the more foreclosures there are in an area, the more prices tend to plummet.  The median sale price in Antelope dropped 20.6% in October from the previous year, from $350,750 last year to $278,350 this year.  The average sale price dropped 23.6% during this time, from $360,437 last October to $275,350 this October.  Average sold price per square foot dropped off somewhat less, since this year’s average home was somewhat smaller.   The decline in price per square foot was 18.8%, from $206.44 last year to $167.69 last year.

Currently Antelope has 12.03 months of inventory.

But Aren’t Foreclosed Properties Sold “As-Is?”  Why Are They So Popular?

That one’s easy.  Looking at what’s currently on the market in Antelope, here’s how the sold prices per square feet break down:

REO’s are listed on average for $163.19 per square foot.

Non-REOs are listed on average for $183.49 per square foot.

On a 1650 square foot home (which is about average), the difference in price works out, rounding off a bit, to $269,000 versus $303,000.  $34,000.  Ten per cent.

Buyers aren’t stupid.  $34,000 buys a lot of paint and carpet.

Related links:

A colleague of mine recently published an article critical of foreclosure auctions, saying that the tendency of buyers is to overpay at them, and banks know this.  I don’t have any data on that to report one way or another, but whether you love them or hate them, Hudson and Marshall are holding another Sacramento Foreclosure Auction on Sunday, November 18th at 1:00 PM at the Radisson Hotel at 500 Leisure Lane in Sacramento.

You can also bid on properties online before the auction.  (Legal disclaimer:  I’m not advising you to do that or saying you’re going to get a “good deal” or anything of the kind  — right now I’m wearing my blogger hat, and I’m not your agent.)

On the other hand, if you’d like to secure an agent to help you identify which of these properties are good ones, preview them, and assist you with the bidding process so 1) you don’t overpay and 2) you have your own agent rather than the bank’s agent to help you with the inspections and paperwork, give me a call at (530) 672-9160 and I’d be happy to help you with it as a buyer’s agent.

Even if you don’t hire us to work on it, I’m thinking I might go to the auction and report back.  Maybe I can get Purva to go as well, but she may have family coming to town.

Foreclosure auction party?

Some people will take any excuse to throw  a party.

Let’s hope there will be dip.  I like dip.

Trick or treat.

As I prepare my report on Sacramento County’s real estate market for October, 2007, I recall  my happy youth watching The Flintstones.  You remember Fred and the gang.  From the town of bedrock, he’s a page right out of history.

One great cartoon gag from the the Flintstones — though surely it has roots all the way back to the Manichean cartoons of the third century — were the Fred Flintstone as devil / Fred Flintstone as angel that would sometimes perch on Fred’s shoulders, whispering instructions.

Sometimes Gazoo would whisper the instructions.

Bloggers, Find Your Voice (From Among Those You Hear in Your Head)

In my case it’s the eternal angelic optimist, Purva Brown, on one shoulder versus the pitchfork-armed bubblers on the other.

Bubbler pokes me with pitchfork:  In terms of unit volume, October was the second worst month in recorded MLS memory.   803 units sold in Sacramento County in October.

Purva flaps angel wings:   C’mon, John, that MLS data only goes back to October, 2004, so all you have to compare it to are good times.  Plus, October’s volume was an increase of  11.7% over September!  Look on the bright side, will you.

OK, you two.  Behave.  Fight it out between yourselves.  Let my shoulders be your last battleground.

The Rest of the Numbers

The median price of a home in Sacramento has fallen to $300,000 in October, down 14.3% from last October’s median of $349,900, and 24.9% from their peak of $399,499 of November, 2005.  Average sold price per square foot was approximately $189.32 in October, down 18.2% from last October’s $231.23, and down 25.5% from the peak of $254.10 (September, 2005).  (Purva:  That’s not fair, John — you keep making the houses lose 1/4 of the value by picking high peak values from different months.  What are you, some kind of bubble blogger now? ).  The average home sold for $327,719 in Sacramento County in October, down 14.9% from last year’s average of $385,233.

Recently we reported that about a quarter of the homes selling in Sacramento County were foreclosures (REOs).  The numbers have now risen to slightly more than one third.  More precisely, of the 803 units that sold in October, 285 (35.5%) were REOs.  Now you bubblers might think you could get an even 50% if you throw in the short sales, but you can’t, because only 31 short sales sold during this period, so the overall total ends up being about 39.4%.

Inventory is 11.61 months for Sacramento County overall.

Related links:

For some time now, we’ve had a Sacramento Foreclosures section where you could browse for Bank Owned Properties or Short Sales by county in El Dorado, Placer, and Sacramento County.

We’ve now added a Foreclosure Search Form to make it a little easier to:

• Select only in the areas you’re interested in, across all three counties.
• Narrow your selections by price range.

We’ve kept it really simple, but hopefully this basic functionality makes things a bit easier.  Please give it a try and let me know if you run into any problems!

Related links:

I’ve updated our site home lists, including the sections for:

• Condos
• New Homes
• Foreclosures

Most of these sections are pretty much “browse only” as of now, but I plan to have a search tool in place for the foreclosures soon — probably some time this week.

A client once told me that it’d be nice to have such a thing for the new homes section as well, so I may tackle that this week as well.

Enjoy.

Related links:

Those of you who do real estate searches from the either our main search page or many of our other search pages have access to listings that are updated six times per week.

I’m not sure why it’s six and not seven.  Presumably it’s to give FTP a Sabbath.  The point is, it’s practically daily, so it’s about as up to date as you can get without calling a Realtor up and asking him.

In addition to the search pages, there are also a lot of pages where you can browse listings, such as our foreclosure pages, the condos pages, and the new homes pages.  These pages are driven by a separate database that we maintain, that we update once per week or so.  We’ve recently improved the import mechanism on these pages to fix a few issues, so we expect these pages to more closely match our MLS (Metrolist) as time goes along.

We just did an import as well, so we’re pretty current as of now.  Enjoy!

The real estate market for Sacramento for September, 2007 was the slowest we’ve seen since the MLS data begins in August, with 730 units (down 41.3% from last September’s volume of 1244 units).  By itself, this is fairly depressing, but fortunately we have somewhat better news in that 1314 units are pending sale, so it’s possible the unit volume will pick up some for October.

In terms of price, this year’s average home sold in Sacramento County for $342,640, 12.4% less than last September’s average of $391,165.  Sold price per square foot declined more, 14.2%, from $235.08 on average last year to $201.79 on average this year.  The median price fell 12.1%, from $353,750 last year to $311,000 this year.

The total number of expired listings was down slightly this September, but because of the sharp drop in unit volume, the expired to sold ratio stood at 153.6% in September, as opposed to 96.2% a year earlier.

Bank owned properties, making up just over 25% of sales in August, accounted for 26.2% of sales in September (i.e., 191 of the 730 units sold).

There are currently 11.4 months of unsold inventory in Sacramento County.

Related links:

We’ve improved our Sacramento Foreclosures portion of the site this morning with two enhancements.  First, if you scroll past the foreclosure listings offer, you’ll be rewarded with a set of foreclosure “Frequently Asked Questions”.  Actually, to be perfectly frank, I think the best questions here are the ones that aren’t frequently asked — and that may keep some people from ignoring the real opportunity that buying a foreclosure represents.  We’ve tried to answer those as well.

The second improvement is that we’ve now added Placer County and El Dorado County to the areas where you can browse short sales and bank owned foreclosures.  Those links are all available from the main foreclosure page, but for your convenience, here they are again:

Bank Owned Properties:

El Dorado County

Placer County

Sacramento County

Short Sales:

El Dorado County

Placer County

Sacramento County

Related links:

Like most greater Sacramento markets, Placer County has had its share of the reversal of fortunes of 2005-2007 (or make that 2005 to 2000-when?), but August’s numbers are less dramatic than others we’ve seen. The average home sold for $518,108 in August, or 96.4% of the average list price of $537,549. This year’s average home was 7.1% bigger than last year’s, so while the average sale price dropped only 0.6% from last year’s average of $521,393, the sold price per square foot dropped 7.2%, from $249.47 last year to $231.50 this year. Likewise the median price fell 8.4% from year to year, from $453,000 last year to $415,000 this year. This compares favorably to a 12.2% drop for Sacramento County from August to August, and 14.8% for El Dorado County during the same period.

Last year, of 338 homes sold, none of them were REOs (bank owned foreclosures). This year, of 275 sold homes, 40 (12.0%) were REOs. This is a huge jump in absolute terms, of course, but it is approximately similar to El Dorado County’s 11.6% REO sale rate, and much lower than Sacramento County, in which fully a quarter (25.3%) of August’s sales were bank owned.

Approximately 339 homes have sold per month over the past year, on average. There are 3242 active listings in Placer County currently, putting the unsold inventory figure at 9.7%.

Related links:

The number of foreclosures in Sacramento has been the subject of many articles and a great deal of press attention. I thought I’d take a look at a few of the areas that are experiencing a high number of foreclosures to get a feel for how many foreclosures are currently active and what sort of discount they represent for buyers.

With this in mind, I focused my research on the three areas that are showing highest numbers in the Multiple Listing Service (raw numbers, not percentages) of bank owned properties in Sacramento County. These areas the Franklin Blvd / Freeport area (95823 — see zip code map), Sacramento Florin 95828 (map), and Elk Grove 95758 (Map). In fact, when you look at the map, you can see that the choice of calling these “three areas” or “one area” is pretty arbitrary, since they roughly border one another.

The Boring News — How Many Are There?

Let’s take them as one area of Sacramento County that’s high in foreclosures first. In these three high foreclosure areas, the number of active listings that are bank owned, is 17% of the total. At the same time, 11% of the total listings are short sales — properties where the seller’s proceeds from the sale do not cover the cost of repaying the loan. So for both types of “distressed” properties, we come up with a figure of 28%. Once again, the Sacramento Bee’s summary claim that for every two homes sold, one is in foreclosure seems to overstate the case. (I critiqued those numbers from another angle here). However, to give the bee their due, here are possible reasons for the discrepancy:

• The Bee was reporting on August foreclosures and sales only, whereas my current report concerns active listings that have accumulated over some time.
• As we’ve shown earlier in one market, foreclosures outsell non-foreclosures. This isn’t hard to understand — they’re cheaper. This being the case, you’d expect the “absorption rate” for short sale and REOs to be faster than for non-distressed sales.

The Interesting News — How Much Money Can You Save?

Of course, the debate about how many foreclosures there are generates a lot of heat, but not much light. A much more interesting question is, as always: “What’s in it for me?”

If you’re a buyer, plenty!

The following numbers are all expressed in list price per square foot.

In the Franklin Blvd area (95823), short sales are presently discounted 9.2% from their non-distressed counterparts. Bank owned properties are even better, discounted an average of 15.5%. In Elk Grove (95758), the average discount for a short sale is 11.9%, while for an REO it’s 17.1%. The Florin area boasts some of the best numbers of all in this respect. Short sales are discounted 12.4%, while the average foreclosure is discounted a tasty 18.3%! If you’re willing to put up with doing whatever repairs are needed yourself, that difference is huge, and it means the difference between purchasing something at roughly $320,000 and roughly $260,000. $60,000 buys a lot of carpet and paint!

Related links:

Recently I’ve been reworking the foreclosure area of the web site and — as promised earlier — I’ve added a page of links where you can browse Sacramento Short Sale Listings. If you’re unfamiliar with Short Sales, what these are are sales where the sellers are “short” in the sense of not having enough cash to sell, pay closing costs, and pay off the lender(s) they owe. So what happens is that you have to get approval from the bank, a process which is fairly time consuming.

That said, there are some bargains to be had in short sales, but (as we recently showed for Antelope and we’ll examine further in a future article), on average the discounts are better on bank owned properties.

Antelope’s real estate market is one where a large number of short sales and foreclosures are driving prices down. Our foreclosure list puts Antelope at number six in our unfortunate hit parade of high foreclosure areas. Between them, short sales and foreclosures make up slightly more than half of the available inventory in Antelope. There are 500 active listings in Antelope at present, of which 103 (20.6%) are bank owned, and 150 (30%) are short sales.

In August, the average home sold in Antelope fetched $302,588, 18.3% less than last year’s average of $370,212. Some of that difference was size related, with this year’s home coming in 5.5% smaller. The average sold price per square foot dropped somewhat less, therefore, 13.5%, from $215.24 last August to $186.09 this August. The median price was down 16.9%, from $361,200 last year to $300,000 this year. Units sold were down from last year’s 62 units to 46 units this year, a 25.8% drop.

Interestingly, though short sales in inventory outnumber bank owned properties, when you look at what sold, the numbers are reversed. Though bank owned properties (REOs) make up 20.6% of the inventory currently, they represent 32.6% of the sales in August. Conversely, short sales make up 30% of active inventory, yet accounted for only 10.9% of the sales in August.

This difference is not surprising given the price discrepancy. Looking at the current list price in Antelope, homes that aren’t short sales or foreclosures average $200.41 per square foot, while short sales are priced 9% less at 182.42 per square foot. REOs are priced even lower, 15.0% less, at $170.43 per square foot. In addition, most agents probably feel that REO sales are a bit less problematic, so to the (limited) extent that buyer choices reflect our opinions, that may have something to do with this as well.

To view current REO properties in Antelope, click here. We do not yet have short sale listings available yet directly on our web site (except mixed in with other listings), however please feel free to contact us if you’re interested in listings from this (or any other) custom search. To view all Antelope listings, click here. We’ll have short sale listings coming soon and will post links when they’re up.

Related links:

We’ve put up a new section on the web site dedicated to listings of Sacramento foreclosures. Here we have a complete list based on the MLS that we’ll update every week or so of bank owned properties (also known as REO or “Real Estate Owned”) throughout Sacramento County. Those areas with no foreclosures in inventory don’t appear here — those that do are arranged in order from the areas with the most foreclosures on top, on down.

The current page is a kind of “browse” interface, but I may also put together a minimal sort of search interface on top of this as well, probably featuring price range and area to start out with.

As far as I know this is the only complete and free list of foreclosures available in Sacramento. All the properties here are listed in the MLS and so are available to buy now.

The queries are a tad on the slow side but are not too bad. If it gets too painful I may go ahead and do some tweaks to optimize that. Let me know if you have any problems using the list — otherwise enjoy! Let me know if there’s any particular statistical data that might be useful, and if it’s not too heavy on the rocket science I’ll put it together.

Related links:

Residential real estate sales in Sacramento County in August were sluggish compared to a year ago at the same time, with a noteworthy number of the sales being made up of bank owned properties. The average home that sold in Sacramento County in August was a 1717 square foot home that listed for $374,731 and sold for $364,256, or just over 97% of list price. The average sale price was down 11% from last year’s average sale price of $409,081. At $325,000, this August’s median sale price was down 12.2% from last August’s median of $370,000. Sold price per square foot was down 12.7%, from $242.92 last year to $212.15 this year.

Unit volume was down 30.4% from last year. Last August, 1216 units sold, while this August, the number had dropped to 846. The expired to sold ratio rose from 77.2% to 106.3% — i.e., more homes expired in August than sold.

All around, August wasn’t a great month.

In my opinion, the real story that stands out in August is the number of foreclosures. Last August less than one per cent of the homes that sold were REOs (”Real Estate Owned”, i.e., bank owned properties). This August that number has risen to 25.3%.

Bank owned properties are selling faster than non-bank-owned. Though REOs made up 25.3% of August’s sales, they comprise 16.2% of active inventory. So clearly they’re outselling non-REO properties, even though they’re often sold as is.

There’s a good reason for this, of course: price. Recall our average sold price per square foot in August: $212.15. If we break that down between REOs and non-REOs, we get $177.10 for the bank owned properties and $222.49 for the properties that are not bank owned.

The difference in price between REOs and non-REOs works out to something just over a 20% discount.

We have more of them.

Let’s go shopping.

Related links: