Sacramento Real Estate Blog

Here’s a Short Version of This Article

At least part of the dramatic drop in price that we reported for Sacramento County for first quarter of 2008 is a result of the fact that the cheaper homes are selling better, not the fact that individual homes have fallen as much as the overall average.

Here’s the Long Version

The nice thing about being an surly old bastard is that at some point you begin to care a lot less what people think of you, unless it’s someone with a gun pointed at you, or someone who might make you dinner. 

And so it is that I know that there’ll be those in the Chicken Little Subculture who’ll see this article as an attempt to minimize the bad news coming out of Sacramento County, and I am blissfully indifferent.

Let me be clear:  the real drops in value that we’ve seen in Sacramento County, Placer County, and El Dorado County have been fairly substantial.  Ask anyone who bought a home in 2005 and is selling one in 2008 — that’s not a great position to be in.  Of course, if you bought in 1996 and are selling in 2008, you’re probably kicking yourself for not moving in 2005, but other than that you’re sitting pretty.

So accuse me of minimizing the drops if you want, but I want to re-examine the numbers that came out in my last Sacramento County real estate market update in light of this other update that I did for Placer County.

The Problem With Averages

There’s always a problem when you aggregate data about a population.  On the one hand, you can’t analyze statistical data at all without more than one data point.  But the fact that the average man in America is 5′ 10″ tall (or whatever the average is this year) doesn’t mean that YOU are 5′10″ tall.  This much is obvious.

One of the interesting things I found out in looking at the Placer County numbers was that part of the reason for the roughly 30% price drop in the county was that the places where prices had fallen the most were selling more, so the higher priced homes were underrepresented.  In Lincoln, for example, home prices fell by 35%, and made up a bigger percentage of the total sales Placer County in 2008 than in 2007.  Meantime, Granite Bay, where prices fell only 9.2%, made up 8.8% of the total sales in Placer County in 2007 but only 4.1% of the total in 2008.

Looking at some of the areas we’ve considered in Sacramento County, the same sort of thing appears to be happening.  In Elk Grove, sold price per square foot fell 32.3% from year to year;  volume went up in Elk Grove by 19.8%.  In Folsom, in contrast, sold price per square foot fell more moderately (11.7%); unit volume went down in Folsom by 38.1%.

So what we’re seeing in Sacramento County is the same sort of thing I talked about in Placer County.  Prices have fallen dramatically, but only part of that drama comes from actual drops in the value of individual houses, and the rest is made up of the fact that the homes that have fallen more dramatically are selling better than those where the value has held on better.

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It’s the fourth of the month, and that means that all good real estate brokers who don’t want to get fined $100 by the MLS have entered their sales data for the month of March into Metrolist.  This means we can start digging into the data for the first quarter in earnest now.

In the first quarter of 2008, 3,011 homes sold through the MLS in Sacramento County, a 4.6% increase in unit volume from the first quarter of 2007’s 2,879 units.  No doubt this reflects buyers taking advantage of the bargains that have happened as more and more foreclosed homes come on the market. 

Prices have fallen substantially over the last year.  Here’s a table that breaks the numbers down:

What’s Selling, And What’s Available

I’ll be publishing an article shortly where we analyze the data from one community, Elk Grove, in terms of how many non-distressed homes are selling versus short sales and foreclosures.  If you want to see that when it comes out, please subscribe now.

We’ll probably do a similar analysis for all of Sacramento County, but to whet your appetite and show the numbers a slightly different way, let’s show how many months of inventory there are for short sales, foreclosures, and non-distressed sales, based on the absorption rate for the last three months.

Sacramento County Real Estate Inventory By Type

Here’s a table that breaks it down, but you can read the text below to see how we got the numbers:

There are 9,661 homes in inventory (for sale) right now, and 1,004 homes sold per month for the last three months.  Overall, then, there are 9.6 months worth of inventory (i.e., 9,661 divided by 1,004).

Of course, how much inventory there is varies widely by type of sale.

3,494 non-distressed homes are currently available in Sacramento County.  (I use “non-distressed” to mean sales that are neither short sales nor bank owned foreclosures).  333 non-distressed homes per month sold in Sacramento County over the last three months.  Inventory for non-distressed sales, then, is 3,494 / 333, or 10.5 months. 

For foreclosures, which are selling like foreclosed hot cakes, the inventory numbers are much lower.  Some 605 foreclosures sold each month during the last quarter, so the 2,633 foreclosures currently available represents 4.4 months of inventory.

Short sales are just the opposite of foreclosures, because they sell like crusty old hot cakes that nobody wants to eat, because the bank may or may not approve your syrup.  Currently there are 3,535 short sales in inventory, and a whopping sixty-seven of such homes sell each month in Sacramento County.  Dividing again, we get 52.8 months of inventory.  Yes, short sale fans, that’s about 4.4 years.

Short answer for the median priced home in Sacramento County:  $8,150 up front, plus $1,835 per month.

Read on for the longer answer.

If you’re buying a home (in Sacramento or anywhere — even, God help you, Boise), naturally you want to know what it’s going to cost.

In this article, I’ve taken the median priced Sacramento home and worked out how much it would cost you to buy it, and when you’d be paying what.  We’re going to be buying a $255,000 home, which as of a few weeks ago was our median selling price.

What I’ve tried to do in this article is put together a scenario that is:

• Accurate given current rates and information.
• Doable.  By doable I mean you won’t have to pitch lowballs all day in the hope that someone will bat your home out of the park, or write an offer using a program that wouldn’t work on a bank foreclosure.  (Most of our buyers are interested in foreclosures because of the savings).  In other words, I’m presenting you with what I believe is a reasonable scenario for an offer that stands a fair chance of getting accepted and that will actually close.

I’ve also tried to estimate high on some of these costs such as inspections, which may be $25.00 or so cheaper in some instances than I’m quoting here.  In any case all numbers are estimates, so actual numbers may differ.

For our scenario, I’ve assumed you’re going to get the seller to pay  your closing costs, but you’re going to be bringing in a 3% deposit for an 30-year, fixed rate, FHA loan at 5.875%.  Actual rates and APRs vary, but that’s approximately what we’ve been seeing lately.*  The 3% can be gifted, so if you don’t have savings, you can purchase a home using that perennial favorite — the same program my wife and I used — PDPMAP.  (Parental Down Payment Mooching Assistance Program).

OK, so what will you need in the way of cash, and when?

When you write your offer:   First, you’ll usually need $1,000 for a good faith deposit.  This amount is not set by law, but rather by local tradition.  Some bank owned properties require a 1% deposit (i.e. $2,550), but unless that’s the case, I usually recommend a $1,000 deposit.  Whatever the amount, you’re going to write a check to the title company when you write your offer and give it to your Realtor® — we send a photocopy of the check to the listing agent when we submit your offer.  The check itself is held in the file uncashed until your offer is accepted, then it is cashed by the escrow company.  When you close escrow, it’s credited toward either your down payment or closing costs.  If you cancel the escrow during your inspection period, you get your deposit back. 

While you’re in escrow:  Once your offer is accepted, there are a few more costs, including an appraisal ($400), a pest inspection ($100), and a whole house inspection ($400).  For all of these, you’ll typically need a check up front, but the cost of the appraisal will be credited back to you in escrow.

Closing Escrow:  Remember our scenario. There are a number of closing costs, but we’ve asked the seller to pay those.  We need a 3% down payment, but we’re getting a credit for the good faith deposit and the appraisal that we’ve already paid.  Three per cent of $255,000 is $7,650, but with the $1,400 credit, our remaining cash to close is $6,250. 

In other words, between the point when you wrote your offer and when you got the keys to your house, your total cost was your $7,650 down payment plus your pest inspection and whole house, for a total of $8,150.

Monthly Payment:   

Because you’re financing a fairly high percentage of the cost of the home, your lender is going to want you to use an impound account to pay your tax and insurance.  You’ll also be paying principle and interest, plus MIP.  MIP, or Mortgage Insurance Premium, is the FHA equivalent of PMI — it’s insurance you pay because you’re borrowing a large percentage of the cost of your home.  (Once you’ve paid down your mortgage to 78%, the MIP is canceled).  Your total estimated monthly payment for all of these (Principle, Interest, Tax, Insurance, and MIP) will be $1,835.

So there’s how we got to our answer.  The median priced home in Sacramento costs $8,150 up front and $1,835 per month.

For those of you who would like a bit more detail on what we mean by closing costs, the following is a somewhat more detailed version of what we just went over:

* This is an estimate from a Realtor — not an offer to lend.  We use independent lenders.  Please consult a lender for accurate APR information.

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El Dorado County homeowners may have some cause to lament the loss of their home’s value over the last year, but compared to homeowners in Sacramento County they are sitting pretty.  While Sacramento County home prices lost some 27% of their value on a sold price per square foot basis over the last year (see our recent Sacramento Real Estate January Market Update), homes in El Dorado County dropped 11.7% from January to January.

The average home sold in El Dorado County in January for $466,127, 94.8% of it’s list price value of $491,947.  In January of 2007, in contrast, the average selling price was $474,378, which was 95.7% of the average list price of $495,479.   This year’s average was only down 1.7% from year to year, so most of the drop in sold price per square foot was made up by the fact that this year’s crop of homes was 11.3% larger than last year’s.  The median sale price in January fell 5.6% from year to year, from $447,000 to $422,000.

Currently bank foreclosures make up 13.7% of the inventory in El Dorado County, but in January they accounted for 30.7% of the sold homes. 

The price discrepancy between bank foreclosures and non-foreclosures (including short sales) is huge.  The average bank foreclosure in El Dorado County is currently listed at $180.06 per square foot, while the average non-foreclosure is listed at $262.60.  This difference is even more glaring when you consider that the non-REO sample consists of larger homes (which should have a smaller price per square foot value just by virtue of their size).  Current “bank repo” opportunities in El Dorado County include some forty-six homes listed below $300,000.

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January’s real estate numbers for Sacramento County are in, and so on the one hand we’re ready for usual: a nerd-friendly, statistics-heavy look backward on the previous month.

Yes, I want to spit out all the boring numbers, but at the same time there’s something very exciting going on that’s a bit harder to measure, but it’s nonetheless quite real: we have gotten incredibly busy in January, with buyers who’ve decided that now’s the time to be shopping and writing offers. Not only that, but our buyers are starting to face quite a bit of competition on the best priced homes.

We’ve been answering about six new buyer inquiries per day for the last two weeks or so. and although we’ve averaged about 1,650 daily unique web site visitors for most of 2007, in January that number shot up rather dramatically to 2,207, the highest number ever.

Buyers Who Didn’t Get The Memo

A lot of people are focusing on the supply side of the market, and pointing out — correctly I think — that we still have a lot of Option ARM resets to work our way through. I call that the supply side because more foreclosures of course means more supply of homes. Based on such a the supply-focused analysis of option ARM resets, the market will continue to be bad well into 2009 or possibly later.

However, what I believe is happening in January is what the real estate bears haven’t spent much time on. Yet in retrospect it looks like it is precisely what one should expect to happen when prices fall like a rock: demand increases.

Thus, for example, this January the median price was $250,000 for Sacramento County, down a dizzying 27.5% from last year’s median price of $345,000. The last few months have seen some of the biggest drops in prices since the Sacramento County real estate market started its decline in September of 2005. The average sale price is down 28.4% (from $376,112 last January to $269,301 this January), and the sold price per square foot has fallen 27% to rest this January at $161.65.

Meantime, however, unit volume appears to have reached a bottoming out point. In September of 2007, the worst month for unit volume in recent memory, unit volume was down 41.3% from the same month a year earlier. This January, however, our unit volume is down only 1% from last January, and if the current surge in buyer interest continues, I would not be surprised to see year on year unit volume increases for many months in 2008 over 2007.

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Like most greater Sacramento markets, Placer County has had its share of the reversal of fortunes of 2005-2007 (or make that 2005 to 2000-when?), but August’s numbers are less dramatic than others we’ve seen. The average home sold for $518,108 in August, or 96.4% of the average list price of $537,549. This year’s average home was 7.1% bigger than last year’s, so while the average sale price dropped only 0.6% from last year’s average of $521,393, the sold price per square foot dropped 7.2%, from $249.47 last year to $231.50 this year. Likewise the median price fell 8.4% from year to year, from $453,000 last year to $415,000 this year. This compares favorably to a 12.2% drop for Sacramento County from August to August, and 14.8% for El Dorado County during the same period.

Last year, of 338 homes sold, none of them were REOs (bank owned foreclosures). This year, of 275 sold homes, 40 (12.0%) were REOs. This is a huge jump in absolute terms, of course, but it is approximately similar to El Dorado County’s 11.6% REO sale rate, and much lower than Sacramento County, in which fully a quarter (25.3%) of August’s sales were bank owned.

Approximately 339 homes have sold per month over the past year, on average. There are 3242 active listings in Placer County currently, putting the unsold inventory figure at 9.7%.

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Recently I’ve been reworking the foreclosure area of the web site and — as promised earlier — I’ve added a page of links where you can browse Sacramento Short Sale Listings. If you’re unfamiliar with Short Sales, what these are are sales where the sellers are “short” in the sense of not having enough cash to sell, pay closing costs, and pay off the lender(s) they owe. So what happens is that you have to get approval from the bank, a process which is fairly time consuming.

That said, there are some bargains to be had in short sales, but (as we recently showed for Antelope and we’ll examine further in a future article), on average the discounts are better on bank owned properties.

Antelope’s real estate market is one where a large number of short sales and foreclosures are driving prices down. Our foreclosure list puts Antelope at number six in our unfortunate hit parade of high foreclosure areas. Between them, short sales and foreclosures make up slightly more than half of the available inventory in Antelope. There are 500 active listings in Antelope at present, of which 103 (20.6%) are bank owned, and 150 (30%) are short sales.

In August, the average home sold in Antelope fetched $302,588, 18.3% less than last year’s average of $370,212. Some of that difference was size related, with this year’s home coming in 5.5% smaller. The average sold price per square foot dropped somewhat less, therefore, 13.5%, from $215.24 last August to $186.09 this August. The median price was down 16.9%, from $361,200 last year to $300,000 this year. Units sold were down from last year’s 62 units to 46 units this year, a 25.8% drop.

Interestingly, though short sales in inventory outnumber bank owned properties, when you look at what sold, the numbers are reversed. Though bank owned properties (REOs) make up 20.6% of the inventory currently, they represent 32.6% of the sales in August. Conversely, short sales make up 30% of active inventory, yet accounted for only 10.9% of the sales in August.

This difference is not surprising given the price discrepancy. Looking at the current list price in Antelope, homes that aren’t short sales or foreclosures average $200.41 per square foot, while short sales are priced 9% less at 182.42 per square foot. REOs are priced even lower, 15.0% less, at $170.43 per square foot. In addition, most agents probably feel that REO sales are a bit less problematic, so to the (limited) extent that buyer choices reflect our opinions, that may have something to do with this as well.

To view current REO properties in Antelope, click here. We do not yet have short sale listings available yet directly on our web site (except mixed in with other listings), however please feel free to contact us if you’re interested in listings from this (or any other) custom search. To view all Antelope listings, click here. We’ll have short sale listings coming soon and will post links when they’re up.

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Looking at the real estate market for Folsom in August, we find a market that’s somewhat stronger in many respects than Sacramento County as a whole. I expect to see Folsom being one of the first Sacramento County markets to recover from the downturn we’re currently experiencing, but of course, that’s a “foreward looking statement”, which is how Wall Street says “guess.”

On to the numbers. Sixty homes sold in Folsom in August, down 13% from last year’s volume of 69 sold homes. The average home sold in Folsom for $478,254, down some 7.1% from last year’s average of $514,805. This year’s home being slightly bigger than last year, the average sold price per square foot in Folsom dropped marginally more, 8.5%, from $248.10 last year to $227.09 this year. The median price in Folsom dropped 11.7% from August to August, from $497,500 last year to $439,450 last year.

Compared to Sacramento County as a whole, Folsom sellers are competing with a fairly low percentage of bank owned homes. 6.7% of the homes that sold in August of 2007 were bank owned (REO), compared with 0% (no bank owned sold) in August of 2006. In inventory, bank owned homes make up 5.3% of the unsold homes, with 23 REOs to a total of 436 active homes for sale. Inventory is relatively low at just under six months.

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This report covers residential real estate sales for East Sacramento (95819).

East Sacramento’s real estate market continues to defy the statistics for the rest of Sacramento County, with strong prices and low inventory. This year’s average home sold for $486,300, 11% more than last year’s average of $438,041. Granted, this year’s home was just over 100 square feet bigger, but even adjusted for square footage, prices rose slightly from August to August. Last August the sold price per square foot was $346.55, while this August that number had risen .4% to $347.85. Only the median price showed any wear and tear, dropping 1.9% from $415,000 to $407,250.

As we reported for July, the numbers for East Sac continue to be strong. For example, in August, where average days on market decreased. This year the average was forty days, 13% lower than last month’s forty-six. Likewise the expired to sold ratio is down this year, from 56.5% to to 26.7%. Inventory is low at 3.63 months, down from 3.91 months last month.

Foreclosures are the exception to the rule in East Sacramento. Of the eighty-four active units in inventory, only 3 of them (3.6%) are bank owned. No bank-owned homes sold in August of this year or last year.

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Residential real estate sales in Sacramento County in August were sluggish compared to a year ago at the same time, with a noteworthy number of the sales being made up of bank owned properties. The average home that sold in Sacramento County in August was a 1717 square foot home that listed for $374,731 and sold for $364,256, or just over 97% of list price. The average sale price was down 11% from last year’s average sale price of $409,081. At $325,000, this August’s median sale price was down 12.2% from last August’s median of $370,000. Sold price per square foot was down 12.7%, from $242.92 last year to $212.15 this year.

Unit volume was down 30.4% from last year. Last August, 1216 units sold, while this August, the number had dropped to 846. The expired to sold ratio rose from 77.2% to 106.3% — i.e., more homes expired in August than sold.

All around, August wasn’t a great month.

In my opinion, the real story that stands out in August is the number of foreclosures. Last August less than one per cent of the homes that sold were REOs (”Real Estate Owned”, i.e., bank owned properties). This August that number has risen to 25.3%.

Bank owned properties are selling faster than non-bank-owned. Though REOs made up 25.3% of August’s sales, they comprise 16.2% of active inventory. So clearly they’re outselling non-REO properties, even though they’re often sold as is.

There’s a good reason for this, of course: price. Recall our average sold price per square foot in August: $212.15. If we break that down between REOs and non-REOs, we get $177.10 for the bank owned properties and $222.49 for the properties that are not bank owned.

The difference in price between REOs and non-REOs works out to something just over a 20% discount.

We have more of them.

Let’s go shopping.

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The real estate market in Carmichael, California (95608) in July was a bit stronger than Sacramento County as a whole. Unit sales were the same as last year at the same time (thirty-six), though less than the twelve-month average (forty-four). The average home sold in Carmichael in July for $416,588, or 95.6% of the average list of $435,906. The average sale price this year was down 8.6% from last year’s average of $455,987, however, unlike many of the snapshots we take, the average size was down somewhat, so the average sold price per square foot was down only 4.2%. The median price dropped dramatically (13.8%), from $429,000 last year to $370,000 this year.

With unit volume staying the same and falling expireds, the expired to sold ratio in Carmichael dropped from 83.3% last year to 58.3% this year.

With 328 units unsold as of this writing, there are currently 7.5 months of inventory in Carmichael, somewhat less than for Sacramento as a whole but still in the “Buyer’s Market” category. The thirty-one foreclosures (REOs) listed in the MLS make up 9.5% of the total.

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The real estate market in Fair Oaks in July was pretty typical of Sacramento County. The average home sold for $476,462, down 1.4% from last July’s average of $483,236. However, at the same time, this year’s home was 6.4% bigger than last, so price per square foot dropped 7.4% from July to July.

I think we should borrow a phrase from Jebediah Springfield and call this process of buying a larger home for roughly the same money “embiggening“. It happens quite a bit in a lot of markets, and is certainly a commonplace in El Dorado County as well.

Back to Fair Oaks. This year’s median home sale price was $400,000, down a substantial 13.8% from last year’s median of $464,250. The average home that spold spent 48 days on the market, up 9.1% from last year’s avearge of 44. Unit volume was down to twenty-seven units, a drop of 32.5% from last year’s 40 units.

Currently there are just under 10 months of inventory in Fair Oaks, with 372 units active. Of these 472, twenty-one, or 6.8%, are bank foreclosures.

The expired to sold ratio stood at 100% (i.e., exactly the same number of listings expired as sold) in July, up from last year’s figure of 87.5%

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I recently congratulated my friend Susan when she closed escrow on a beautiful home in East Sacramento. At the time I told her about some earlier articles I had written about East Sacramento in general and the fabulous forties in particular, and told her about the sense I had that East Sacramento was a sort of a market anomaly — in a really good way — in that in the midst of falling prices elsewhere in Sacramento county, East Sac was holding its own quite well.

July’s numbers certainly bear this intuitive feeling out in a really big way. East Sac is doing quite well indeed. While the average price of a home in Sacramento County fell 7.4% from July of last year to this July, the average price of a home in East Sac rose an incredible 18.5% during the same period, from $468,094 to $554,571. To be sure, this year’s “average home” was a good deal bigger, but even adjusted for square footage, the sold price per square foot did a little better than staying relatively steady. It actually rose 7/10 of one per cent from July to July (when on larger homes you’d expect it to fall just by virtue of bigger sizes). So while greater Sacramento County’s sold price per square foot fell 9.5%, East Sac’s actually rose slightly.

At the same time, many other market indicators show East Sac going strong. Days on market actually decreased during the period, from 54 days on average last year to 38 days this year. The expired to sold ratio, which stood at a “buyer’s market” 66.8% last July, was down to 17.4% this July. At the same time the ratio rose in the county from 80.5% to 103.7%. Similarly, inventory in East Sac down to 3.91 months, compared to a county-wide average of 10.7 months. While unit volume dropped 47.3% county-wide, it rose 43.8% in East Sac.

So we have:

• Low inventory
• Rising prices
• Falling expireds
• Rising unit sales volume

Hey, I remember something like that. We used to have something like that in 2004 or so. What was it we called it again?

Oh yeah, I remember: Seller’s Market!

Sweet.

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