The last time we looked at the real estate market in Antelope in April of this year, the market didn’t look much different from this month. 59 homes have sold in the month of July, an overall unit volume decline of 21.3% year over year. Foreclosure sales alone fell 28.6%. There have been falling sales in all categories we track including short sales (which fell 5.9%) and non-distressed sales as well (which fell 18.8%) year over year.

The overall ratio of distressed sales to non-distressed has not change dramatically year over year. Approximately 4 out of 5 homes sold continue to be distress sales in the area of Antelope, the zip code of 95843 in Sacramento county.

Average sold price per square foot is now $111.14 which is 4.5% lower than it was a year ago. Last July, it was at a high of $116.43. Average sales price has risen since we last took a a look at Antelope. However, it is still 3.5% lower than it was last July when it was $202,764. Currently, it is $195,621. Median sales price rose 1.5% for the same period from $197,100 to a high of $200,000.

Inventory has fallen since we last looked to 4.3 months based on the last year of sales.

66 homes closed escrow in the month of April in Antelope, an overall unit volume increase of 10% year over year. Foreclosure sales fell 45.5% while short sales increased 86.7% for the same period. Non-distressed sales also increased year over year 66.7%. In fact, 1 out of every 3 homes are now non-distressed sales as compared with 1 out of 5 last April, a bit of an improvement in the overall health of the Antelope real estate market.

Average price per square foot is now $112.49, which is a 1.8% decline year over year from a high of $114.57. Average sales price now rests at $179,596 which is a 2.3% decline for the same period. Last April, the average sales price for a home in the 95843 zip code was $183,855. Median sales price is now $185,000.

Inventory in Antelope is now at 5.1 months based on the last year of sales and 5.7 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory is around 1 month.

71 homes closed escrow in Antelope in the month of March, an overall unit volume increase of 12.7% year over year. In other good news for the area of Antelope, foreclosure sales are down 17.1% year over year. Short sales seem to be gaining ground (22 sales this March over 13 last March) and so are non-distressed sales (15 sales this March over 9 sales last March), both overall increases of close to 70% year over year.

Average sold price per square foot remained almost the same at a 5% decrease for the same period from $112.40 last year to $118.06 this March. Average sales price fell from $203,240 to rest at $186,627; that’s a decline of 8.2%. Median sales price however fell roughly 7% from $204,000 to $190,000.

Inventory in Antelope is at 4.8 months based on the last year of sales and 5.3 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory is around 1.5 months and short sale inventory remains at right around a year.

Homebuyers have lost interest in buying real estate in the Antelope area, or so it seems, in this very slow and lackadaisical market. Just 33 homes closed escrow this last month which was a 47.6% unit volume decrease year over year. There was a drop in foreclosure sales by 62.5% and short sales by 26.3% with no corresponding increase in non-distressed property sales. In fact, just 4 non-distressed sales took place, the same number as a year ago.

Prices too have fallen year over year. Average price per square foot is now $110.61 which is 9.5% lower than it was a year ago when it was $122.29. Average sales price is now $190,214 which is 3.9% lower than last February’s average sale price os $197,919. Median sales price remains fairly stable at $195,000 down 0.5% from a high of $196,000 last February.

Inventory in Antelope is at 5 months based on the last year of sales and 5.8 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory is a little over a month.

44 homes sold in the Antelope area this month, an overall unit volume decline of 20% year over year. This was to be expected with foreclosure sales falling 59.5% – from 42 homes to just 17 for the same period. Short sales have gained ground from last January, however. They increased in sales by 88.9% year over year while non-distressed homes increased 150%. Overall, Antelope seems like it is recovering – 22.7% of sold homes are now non-distressed as compared with just 7.3% a year ago.

Prices seem to have steadied as well. Average sold price per square foot now sits at $118.48 which is just 0.6% under what it was a year ago when it was at $119.14. Homebuyers however preferred homes on average 9.1% smaller this January than the last and so the average sales price seems to be 9.6% lower year over year. It is currently $184,691 from a high of $204,291. Median sales price is now $186,000.

Inventory in Antelope is at 4.8 months based on the last year of sales and 5.1 months based on the last six months of sales.

As prices edge closer to the point at which they were a year ago with price declines at single digits, home sales are still falling in some areas. Homeowners in those areas are waiting for the sweet spot where prices stop falling and sales begin to level out. Clearly this has not happened in Antelope at this time.

Just 48 homes sold in the area, a 39.4% decline year over year. This decline was mainly because the glut of foreclosed homes is now receding and REO sales themselves declined by 72.2% year over year. So even with short sales gaining ground (25% increase) and non-distressed sales also increasing by 38.5% for the same period, overall unit volume was still down. Two-thirds of the homes are now distressed sales.

Average price per square foot is not $118.86 down 3.4% year over year from a high of $123.10. Average sales price fell 10.1% from $215,952 a year ago to $194,069 this December. Median sales price sits at $195,250.

Inventory in Antelope is at 4.2 months.

Sales have been quite depressed in the Antelope area after the surge in sales we experienced last year. So I suppose it’s natural to see some unit volume drops. The majority of the unit volume drops have been in the foreclosure sales where just 22 homes sold this November over 57 last November. That’s a fall of 61.4%. Short sales remained about the same at 9 and we saw some small increases in non-distressed sales from 8 last November to 12 this month. Even so, non-distressed sales now make up over 1 out of 4 sales as compared with just over 1 out of 10 last November.

Average price per square foot hasn’t budged much since September of 2009. Average price per square foot is now at $114.72 down 8.3% from $125.07 last November. Average sales price is now $177,327 down 11.1% year over year from a high of $199,432. Median sales price is now at $185,000.

Inventory is currently at 4.5 months based on the last year of sales and 4.6 months based on the last six months of sales.

If you’re a homebuyer looking for a house in Antelope, you’re one of the (very) few buyers in the area, at least according to the sold statistics from last month. Year over year, monthly real estate sales in the Antelope area fell almost 47% – just 50 homes sold this September as compared with 94 in September of 2008! Add to that the fact that there was no change in the non-distressed property sales but short sales fell 27.8% year over year and foreclosures fell an even larger number of 62% for the same period.

Average sold price per square foot remains fairly consistent at $115.44 which is a drop of 10.3% year over year. Interestingly enough, homebuyers also bought houses 7% smaller than they did last September. Average sales price is now $183,930 which is 16% lower than it was a year ago from a high of $219,705. However, because homes sold were also smaller on average, the more accurate picture here is given by the average sold price per square foot.

Inventory is at 4.1 months based on the last year of sales and 4.4 months based on the last six months of sales, pointing to the slowdown.

Although foreclosure sales are falling, the Antelope real estate market for sales isn’t looking too bad – or didn’t in August. Unit volume gained 15.2% year over year, which is no mean task in itself and non-distressed sales doubled for the same period, going from just 12% of all sales to 25%. 76 homes sold in all, of which 34 were foreclosure sales, 23 were short sales and 19 were non-distressed. Thus, we have a gain overall, even though foreclosure sales fell 21% year over year.

Average sold price per square foot is currently at $116.44 which is 11% under last August’s price of $131.02. Homebuyers also afforded themselves homes on average 6.2% bigger than they did last year. Average sales price – currently at $198,733, down 5.6% year over year from a high of $210,464 – reflects this number so the more accurate measure is average price per square foot. Median sales price rests at $199,000 this month.

Inventory in Antelope is at 3.8 months based on the last year of sales and 4.2 months based on the last six months of sales.

A slow climb upwards? We’ll have to see. But one thing’s for certain: with the foreclosure sales drying up in Antelope, the stampede is definitely over. Unit volume fell by 15.7% year over year. Total real estate sales added up to just 75 of which the majority (42) are still REOs but these are quickly losing ground to short sales (17) and non-distressed properties (16). Foreclosure sales fell by 32.3% year over year while short sales gained 21% and non-distressed sales 23% for the same period.

Price per square foot inched up over last month, but are still 15.7% under last July. They are currently $116.43. Average sales price is $202,764 – 9% lower year over year. Median sales price currently rests at $197,100.

Inventory is at 3.9 months based on the last year of sales and 4.4 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory is at 0.5 months and 0.7 months respectively.

Is it May showers that bring June flowers or June showers that dampen the real estate market? Well, it doesn’t look like the weather is to blame for the real estate market in Antelope, but the change in the REO inventory may have something to do with it!

Overall sales fell by 39% year over year in the 95843 zip code. Just 55 homes sold of which three quarters are still distress sales; but compare that with the fact that a year over more than 85% were distressed. Also, only 26 homes were foreclosure sales as compared with 67 last June. Foreclosure sales have dropped by 61.2% year over year while short sales gained 40% and non-distress sales gained 15.4% for the same period.

In terms of price per square foot, this did provide a boost. Sold price per square foot is currently at $114.38 higher than last month’s price but still 16.3% lower year over year. Average sales price is at $182,105, again 19% under last June’s high of $224,261. Median sales price is at $180,000.

Inventory is at 3.8 months based on the last year of sales and 4.5 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory is at 0.6 months and 0.8 months respectively.

There has been talk of the inexpensive REO inventory running out and Antelope might be a place that exemplifies this change. Year over year, we see nothing different except that foreclosure sales have dropped pretty drastically – by 45.5% to be exact. A total of 56 homes sold this May as compared with last May, an overall unit volume drop of 35.6% but nothing has changed in the short sales – total sold 10 (as compared with 11 last May) or non-distressed home sales (10 sold – same as last May).

Sold price per square foot is currently at $106.42, which is 22.4% lower year over year as compared with $137.07. True, home buyers have afforded themselves on average homes about 10.6% as well for the same period. But is the REO party coming to an end? We’ll have to wait and watch! Average sales price is currently at $198,081 – 14% lower year over year and median price is at $197,475 – 13% lower.

Inventory for foreclosure sales is dismally low – at 0.5 months based on the last year of sales and 0.6 months based on the last six months of sales. Overall inventory is at 3.5 months and 4.1 months respectively.

A total of 60 homes sold this month in the Antelope area and there have been some interesting changes in the real estate landscape. For one thing, the overall unit volume is down 27% year over year. And for another, foreclosure sales are down for what is perhaps the first time in months. Overall foreclosure sales are down 48% year over year.

As for the numbers: 33 foreclosures sold this April along with 15 short sales and 12 non-distressed homes. Currently 4 out of 5 homes are distress sales and while that number might not be too different from last month or even a year ago, the difference is that short sales have doubled year over year!

Price per square foot is currently at $114.21 – that’s down 17.5% year over year from a high of $138.50. The current average sales price is $183,288 down 25% year over year from a high of $243,829. Median sales price is currently $186,989, down 22.3% for the same period.

Inventory is at 3.3 months based on the last 12 months of sales and 3.8 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory is at 0.5 months and 0.6 months respectively.

The Antelope real estate market seems mostly unchanged from last month. Sales are still strong and interest in distressed properties remains high. A total of 63 homes sold this month – 41 foreclosure sales, 13 short sales and 9 non-distressed homes, showing the tilt strongly towards foreclosures. In fact, 85.7% of all sales are now distress sales. Overall unit volume is higher year over year by 16.7%.

Average sale price per square foot is not $118.06, lower year over year by 16.7%. This is perhaps the reason for the average home sold to be about 5% bigger this year than the last. Average sales price has taken a 12.4% plunge year over year from a high of $232,052 to $203,240. Median sales price is currently $204,000. This is an 11.3% drop year over year.

Inventory is at 3.3 months based on the last year of sales and 3.6 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory is at 0.5 months, a statistic that could potentially signal an end to the housing woes in Antelope were it not for the 16 months or so of short sale inventory.

The Antelope stampede seems to have moved away from foreclosures to short sales just recently. A total of 63 homes sold in this heavily favored buyer’s market where 93% of all sales are now distress sales. 40 foreclosures and 19 short sales closed escrow this month along with just 4 non-distressed homes. But short sales gained the most year over year: 375%! Foreclosure sales are up 8.1% which lead one to think that maybe the lenders are agreeing to more short sales now that the buyer’s market refuses to let up. Non-distressed home sales have suffered a decline of 71.4% year over year.

Average sold price per square foot is down 13.5% year over year. It is currently $122.29 down from $141.41. The average sales price tells the same story: down 20.2% for the same period, from a high of $247,913 to currently $197,919. Median sales price is at $196,000 – also down 20.3% from last year’s $246,000. But the average home sold was also 8% smaller this February, so the most accurate number here is the average sold price per square foot.

Inventory is at 3.6 months no matter how you look at it.

In terms of overall unit sales volume, Antelope is at almost the same spot today as it was last year at the same time. Call it the January doldrums if you will, but we have only a marginal improvement of 7.8% over last January’s sales. Even the 42 foreclosures that sold this January are nearly the same as last year (40). Year over year, the picture looks much the same, except for one big change. As with most other places in Sacramento county, we are beginning to see short sales finally beginning to sell. Short sales in Antelope show an increase of 200% year over year. This month, 9 short sales closed escrow, as compared with just 3 last January. Non-distressed sales show a drop of 50% year over year.

With prices as well, there’s nothing new. Current sold price per square foot is at $119.14, down 15.6% over last January’s sold price at $141.17. Average sales price is at $204,291 down 13.4% over last January’s $235,838. Median sales price in Antelope also shows a drop of 15% year over year from $240,000. It is currently $204,500.

With sales not changing much year over year, inventory is the same whether you look at the last 12 months of sales or the last 6 months. With both, we come up with 3.5 months of overall inventory and 0.8 months of foreclosure inventory.

From what I’m gathering writing these real estate market updates is that things don’t change drastically between the months of November and December and that is certainly true of Antelope as well. We might just be able to draw from that famous metaphor John coined about an Antelope stampede because this certainly seems to be it. Inventory numbers have fallen further this month. Last month I reported 3.9 months and 3.4 months (based on the last 12 months and 6 months respectively) and this month inventory has shrunk further to 3.3 months and 3 months. Even the short sale inventory is markedly lower than last month.

The reason of course is that we have seen a huge increase in real estate sales: foreclosure sales up by 93% year over year, short sales up by 71.4% year over year and total sales up by 58% year over year. The only number suffering a decline is the non-distressed sales volume (down by 13%) and yes, prices.

Average sold price per square foot has fallen 17.6% from $149.39 to $123.10 this December. Average sales price has fallen 22% from $275,720 to $215,952 year over year. Median sales price has also fallen 21% for the same period: from $265,000 to $209,900. Low prices are definitely driving sales in Antelope. It will be interesting to watch what happens when this fast-drying inventory runs out!

Inventory is drying up rapidly in Antelope. Last month we reported inventory at 4.4 and 6.7 months (based on the last 12 months and 6 months of sales, respectively) and this month it has shrunk to 3.9 and 3.4 months respectively.

Which must mean that unit volume is up, right? It is. It is 103% over real estate sales of last November. That constitutes a 200% increase in foreclosure sales, a 300% increase in short sales and a 47% drop in non-distressed sales. 57 foreclosures sold this November in Antelope, along with 8 short sales and 8 non-distressed sales. Almost 90% of all homes sales in Antelope today are distress sales.

Sold price per square foot has fallen again. It is now 20.6% lower that last November, from its high of $157.47 to $125.07. Average sales price is also down 25.2% year over year. It is currently $199,432 from last November’s $266,552. Median sales price is also lower: 25.2% lower in fact. Currently at $205,000 from $266,000 for the same period.

There are currently 64 foreclosures on the market, but they only make up 1 month of inventory, which means about 2 foreclosures sell every day in Antelope. Unfortunately, there are also 196 short sales, which might drag out a real estate recovery in these parts. Short sales currently make up 19.3 and 14.5 months of inventory depending on how you look at them.

I might be jumping the gun on this, but Antelope seems to be done bottoming out in terms of price. After a strong month of sales in September, this October saw the average sales price actually stop falling. While there is of course no guarantee that this means the falling prices are over, we must take our good news where we get it.

Yesterday, I spoke about El Dorado county’s median sales price rise over last month’s numbers and while Antelope has nothing to in common with El Dorado county, except the occasional common deer (ha, ha – let it go, first cup of coffee today!), we are beginning to see a few places here and there that seem to be bright spots in the otherwise bleak numbers in Sacramento and California, overall.

One such good piece of news is Antelope. Consider this: Average sales price in September for residential listings in Antelope was $219,705. October’s sales price was $216,864. When compared with prices over last October, the price is 21.7% lower, but when compared to last month, the sales price has fallen only 1.29%.

Nondistressed home sellers in Antelope also seem to be holding their breath and waiting for all the foreclosures to be lapped up and gone. While last month was the best month for foreclosure sales, this month (October) wasn’t bad either. 35 foreclosures sold in the month of October along with 11 short sales and only 6 non-distressed homes. This means distress sales make up the majority of sales currently in Antelope.

Inventory based on the last 12 months of sales is at 4.4 months and based on the last 6 months of sales is at 6.7 months. Price per square foot is at $130.01.

The number of foreclosures sold in Antelope this September has almost quadrupled since last September. While only 16 foreclosures sold in the 95843 zip code then, this September saw 63 foreclosures sell. A strong rental market in Antelope is probably responsible for investors jumping in and picking up properties priced extremely well, resulting in the Antelope stampede John spoke about a few months ago.

Apparenty, the stampede isn’t over yet.

Interestingly enough, short sales in Antelope seem to have finally started catching up with the rest of the sales. Consider this fact: While a year ago, houses that sold in Antelope were almost equally divided between distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) and non-distressed sales (private sellers), today the balance is completely off. Most sales this September were foreclosures (67%) and short sales (19.1%) while private sellers accounted for only 13.8% of the sold units.

As you can probably predict, this imbalance between distressed and non-distressed sales has not helped prices rise or stabilize. The average sales price this September dropped 23.1% over last September’s average to rest at $219,705.

I’m not much of an ungulate expert.  Do Antelope stampede?

Either way, stampede is an apt metaphor for the demand for homes in Antelope in recent months.

Consider:

• Based on the last twelve months of sales, there are 5.7 months of inventory (into the seller’s market category).  Based on high absorption rate of the last six months, that number is even lower, at 4.5 months of total inventory.  Of course, this is a “seller’s market” if you’re a bank — some 85.5% of the sales in July were distressed sales.
• Unit volume has more than doubled over the last year.  It is up 143%, from 37 units sold in June of 2007 to 90 units sold in July of 2008.
• The average home that sold in Antelope in June listed for $221,566 and sold for $224,261, i.e., 1.2% over full price.
• There are only seventy-one bank owned homes in inventory now, slightly more than the sixty-seven that sold in June.
• To date, July’s sold price per square foot has increased from the number in June.  June’s sold price per square foot was $136.68, while in July the number so far is $139.80. 

We will have to wait until August to see if prices have indeed started to climb, and it will take several months longer to prove it.  However, much as I would love to call the bottom, I think we may see a more decreases in Antelope as Sacramento County’s overall prices fall.

However, with 1.4 months of foreclosure inventory and only enough distressed sales overall to feed less than four months of demand, it’s possible we may see prices fluctuate for several months before starting to rise in earnest.

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