The Pocket Area (zip code 95831) in Sacramento, also called Greenhaven is managing to hold its own against the tide of foreclosures. We have yet to see how this will carry out into 2009, but it seemed like almost all of 2008, it has managed to keep its head above the water. December was less than great for the area, but unlike other parts of Sacramento county, Greenhaven still showed an increase in its non-distressed sales year over year, albeit by a small number – 17%. Foreclosure sales showed a 100% increase year over year and 1 short sale also sold in the month of December. Unit volume is still up 40% year over year. So a mixture of good and bad news.

The bad news, of course, is on the price front. Sold price per square foot has fallen 11.6% year over year from $192.44 last December to $170.20 this year. The average sale price as dropped $388,800 to $306,362 for the same period – a drop of 21.2%. However, sold price per square foot is a more accurante measure considering the average home sold was also 11% smaller than last year. Median sale price is 19% lower year over year. It fell from $370,000 to rest at $300,000.

Inventory is at 3.6 months based on the last 12 months of sales and 3.8 months based on the last 6 months of sales.

Homeowners in the Pocket area of Sacramento should be pretty thrilled. They have a lot to celebrate. The average sales price in the 95831 zip code has actually gone up from September’s $298,663 to $339,079 – that’s an increase of 13.5% in October! And even though it is a decline of 10.4% over last October’s average sales price of $378,441, the unsold inventory is also in favor of home sellers in this area.

Let me explain. There is currently 3.6 months of inventory on the market. (3.3 months if you consider the last six months of home sales.) Amazingly enough, this is the same number of months inventory for non-distressed sales as well – a number we have yet to see in most other parts of Sacramento county. In spite of foreclosure sales doubling from last October to this October, the majority of home sales in the Pocket area (54.2%) are still non-distressed.

Average price per square foot, while still down 11.4% over last October – it went from $205.01 to $181.63 – is higher than September’s $172.31.

There are currently 87 homes on the market, 51 of which are non-distressed. If this trend continues, the Pocket area may be one of the first areas in Sacramento county to see a real estate recovery.

The pocket area of Sacramento (95831) is a relatively stable market, perhaps the most stable in Sacramento county. (I say that with some disbelief at this point, after the East Sacramento market update. However, do keep in mind that the 95817 zip code of East Sacramento includes Curtis Park as well as Oak Park and the market swings wildly between the two neighborhoods. Curtis Park is mostly owner-occupied and Oak Park mainly investment properties.)

And if bad loans and foreclosures are to blame for the recent downturn, Pocket area residents must be managing their finances well. As a pretty hot market in the real estate boom, its average sales price has dropped a mere 14.6% over last September to $298,663. I know, I know… I said “a mere 14.6%” but if you compare it with the rest of Sacramento, you’ll see what I mean.

Price per square foot has fallen to $172.31 – a drop of almost 20% since last September and that seems to have inspired home buyers to acquire on average a home approximately 100 square feet bigger than last year at the same time.

Non-distressed properties still make up most of the sales – approximately 63% which might account for some of the stability. However, they are still lower than last September’s numbers where 85% of homes sold were non-distressed. September 2008 saw 8 foreclosures sold as compared with 2 last September.

Sacramento’s Pocket Area (95831) has held its value better than the Sacramento County average, with fewer foreclosures.  That said, the area has still declined in value in the 2007-2008 period.

In July, the average home sold in the Pocket area for $388,500, up 4.5% from last year’s average sale price of $371,716.  This increase reflected a larger average sized home, however, so the net result in terms of price per square foot was a decline of 16.9% over the same period, from an average of $231.25 in July of 2007 to $192.13 in July of 2008.

Short sales and foreclosures together make up only about enough inventory for 1.5 months of sales in the Pocket area.  Overall, there are only 3.3 months of inventory in this area.

Non-distressed sales accounted for 65.5% of all the sales in July, with the one closed short sale accounting for a measly 3.4% of the 29 total units that sold, and foreclosures making up the remaining 31%.

June was a good month for Sacramento’s Pocket Area (95831), with a combination of strong sales volume and low inventory.  Of course there’s the usual background of a declining market to talk about, but the Pocket’s June numbers compare favorably with the county as a whole.

In June, the average home sold in the Pocket area for $355,027, down 8.8% from last year’s average of $389,110.  Sold price per square foot fell more sharply, down 16.3% from last year’s $221.95, to an average of $185.82 per square foot this year.  Some 54.3% of all sales in the Pocket area were non-distressed in June, compared to 25% for the county at large.

Even though the Pocket area has held its value well from June to June, it still posted a respectable 59.1% increase in sales volume from year to year.  Of course, the Pocket area is not all that huge, so statistical significance is low.

The other good news for the Pocket area is that there are only 3.9 months of non-distressed inventory, and only 3.7 months of inventory overall.

The tables below give more information on the Pocket area.

Unit Volume Data

Price Data

Inventory (Based on 12 months of prior sales)

Inventory (Based on 6 months of prior sales)

Like many established neighborhoods, Sacramento’s Pocket Area is a one that has been less hard hit by foreclosures than other areas in Sacramento County.  As a result, price declines have been moderate in this area, but we’ve yet to see a recovery from last year’s sales numbers in terms of the number of units sold.

This year’s average home in the Pocket area fetched $352,207, down 12.8% from last year’s average of $403,729.  Sold price per square foot fell just slightly more, 14.2%, from $231.39 in May of 2007 to $198.47 in May of 2008.  While short sales and foreclosures comprised 72% of sales overall in Sacramento County, in the pocket area these sales made up only 43% of sales.  Unlike the rest of the county, where unit volume rose more than 70% in May, in the Pocket area unit volume fell by 36% from May to May, with 33 units selling last May compared to only 21 this May.  Nevertheless, active inventory in the Pocket area is currently low at 4.4 months, compared to 8.3 months overall for Sacramento County.