While I’ve been busy tending to kids almost all day long lately (and if you missed it, I’m taking up full-time mothering as my new profession at least for now beginning at the end of this month – reference John’s earlier post.) things in the Sacramento real estate market have not been stagnant although this month’s market update seems not too different from that of August 2009. Let’s take a closer look.

1596 homes sold in all in the month of August. 38.5% of these were foreclosure sales, 26.4% were short sales and the rest 35.1% were non-distressed sales. Buyer interest in short sales has risen since a year ago and correspondingly foreclosure sales have fallen. REO sales fell 24.3% while short sales rose 27.9% year over year. Non-distressed sales remained almost unchanged for the same period. Unit volume fell 7.4% year over year.

Average sold price per square foot is almost the same as it was last year. It is currently $120.25. Last year, average sold price per square foot was $118.98. Average sales price remained almost unchanged at $198,397 this August from $197,464 last August. Median sales price sits at $175,000 down 2.8% year over year from a high of $180,000.

Inventory in Sacramento county is currently at 4.5 months.

The Sacramento county real estate market is exactly where it was a year ago! How’s that for stability? (I mean that a little tongue-in-cheek, of course.) 1853 homes sold this June – almost the same number as last June. However, foreclosure sales fell 33% while short sales increases 62.3% and non-distressed sales increased 26% year over year. 37.4% of all sales are now non-distressed homes, a better number than last June when 29.7% of all solds were non-distressed.

Average price per square foot has now risen by 2.9% year over year. It is currently $123.96 from $120.49 a year ago. Average sales price currently sits at $208,360 up 5.9% from $196,672 last June. Median sales price has also increased 5.7% to rest at $185,000 from $175,000 last June. Home buyers afforded themselves houses on average 3% larger this June than June 2009.

Overall inventory in Sacramento county is currently at 4.5 months, foreclosure inventory is at 1.3 months. Short sale inventory remains at pretty high levels at just under a year at 11.7 months.

1761 homes sold this month in Sacramento county and unit volume is very close to last year’s sales in the month of May – in fact we’re down only by 5.5%. So if it wasn’t for the short sale inventory still lagging by about a year, I would be feeling pretty about the Sacramento real estate market.

In the various categories, 644 foreclosures sold this month, which is a drop of 43.7% year over year and 421 short sales also closed escrow which is a 56.5% increase for the same period. 696 non-distressed homes sold this month for an increase of 54.3% year over year. Almost 40% of all homes sold are now non-distressed sales over 25% last year at this time.

Average price per square foot is now $125.55, which is a 7.4% increase year over year from $116.86 last May. Average sale price rose to $207,162 from $191,938 last May. That is a 7.9% increase in prices year over year. Median price also increased year over year by 5.9% from $170,000 to rest at $180,000 this May.

Inventory in Sacramento county is at 4.5 months based on the last year of sales and 4.8 months based on the last six month of sales. Foreclosure inventory is at 1.5 months and short sale inventory is still relatively high at right around a year.

Another month with lower unit volume and higher prices. A total of 1562 homes sold in Sacramento county today – a unit volume decline of 18.2% year over year. That was compared with 1910 homes a year ago. The largest change in sales has been in the category of foreclosure sales, which recorded a 50.3% drop year over year. In fact, only 40% of all property sales are now REOs, down from 65.1% just a year ago. Short sales gained ground by 46% year over year while non-distressed properties also increased in sales by 39.2%.

April was another month of year over year price gains. Average sold price per square foot is now $123.14 – up 8.8% year over year and also higher than last month’s average price per square foot at $120.00. The average sized home in Sacramento county sold for 7.5% higher this April than it did last April setting the average sales price of real estate at $196,232. Median sales price is now $175,000 – up 13% year over year.

Inventory in Sacramento county is at 4.4 months based on the last twelve months of sales and 4.8 months based on the last six months of sales. Short sale inventory is – unfortunately for this budding real estate recovery – still over a year.

Another month of leveling off here for Sacramento county home sales and home prices. A total of 1715 homes sold in the county, an overall unit volume drop of 6.6% year over year. Perhaps the best reason for better spirits in home sellers should be this: foreclosure sales were down 46.5% while short sales were up by 86.4% and non-distressed homes by 91.3% year over year. More than 1 out of 3 homes sold now is non-distressed!

While the market still has a long way to go in terms of clearing its short sale inventory before we see any real price gains, it’s good to note that for now at least prices are leveling off. Average price per square foot is currently $120.00 which is 6.5% higher than it was a year ago when it was $112.70. Average sales price of a home is now $196,299 – about 8% higher than it was a year go when it was $181,685 and median sales price currently rests at $172,900.

Real estate inventory is at 4.3 months based on the last year of sales and 4.8 months based on the last six months of sales.

With foreclosures staying away – either because banks are holding on to their inventory and introducing it in phases or because the total foreclosures are slowing down or both – unit volume is down overall. However, the silver lining is that there are more non-distressed sales as a result. Even short sales have increased in sales year over year. Here is the entire picture: a total of 1179 homes sold this month, an unit volume drop year over year of about 29%. Foreclosures were lower by 55%, short sales increased 42.3% and non-distressed homes increased in sales by 51.6%. In fact, almost one out of every three homes is now non-distressed.

Average price per square foot has increased year over year by 3.5% from $113.57 to $117.59 currently. Average sales price also increased slightly year over year from $180,757 to $187,691 currently. That’s an increase of 3.8%. Median sales price is now at $169,000.

Inventory in Sacramento county is now at 4.1 months based on the last year of sales and 4.6 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory is barely over a month and short sales are a little over a year.

This is what a stumbling, unsure recovery looks like for Sacramento county, I suppose. Unit volume is down once again but prices are gradually – very gradually – picking back up. For the third month in a row.

A total of 1176 homes sold in the county of Sacramento this month, more than half of which were distress sales. In fact, just one of three homes is a non-distressed sale which is better than it was a year ago where only 1 out of 10 homes sold was non-distressed. Still overall unit volume is down by 27.8% year over year. The majority of this decline has to do with foreclosure sales being down 58.6% for the same period. And short sales gaining 67.3% and non-distressed gaining 72.1% year over year did not help the fall.

Average price per square foot is now $118.99 which is 3.6% over last January’s average of $114.86. Average sales price rose 4.9% year over year and is currently $191,806 above last year’s $182,861. Median sales price rests at $166,500.

Inventory in Sacramento county is at 3.9 months based on the last year of sales and 4.2 months based on the last six months of sales. Short sale inventory is however still over a year.

Home prices are up year over year second month in a row! And look, I wasn’t here to report it on the third of the month, that is, as soon as I found out. But as John eloquently informed you, by copying an announcement from my Facebook page, I had a baby boy last month and am just now getting a handle on work around here. Therefore the long silence. Anyway, let’s back to real estate.

Every category but foreclosure sales gained in sales year over year. That includes short sales and non-distressed property. So the market might be limping toward some sort of a recovery after all. Foreclosure sales fell 54.2% year over year while short sales gained 89.5% and non-distressed homes also gained 62.6% for the same period. Overall unit volume fell by 19.1% with a total of 1548 homes sold in Sacramento county.

Average sold price per square foot is not at $122.94 which is 1.9% higher year over year and average sales price sits at $206,634 which is 7.2% higher than last December’s price of $192,829. Median sales price is now $180,000.

Sacramento county has 3.5 months of inventory based on real estate sales over the last year and 3.7 months of inventory based on sales of the last six months.

Lots to be thankful for in this November’s market update for Sacramento county! Foreclosure sales are down, non-distressed sales are up, short sales are up and so are prices! Let’s savor the good news one by one.

Foreclosure sales fell by 52.2% year over year. Compared to last November when 72.5% of all sales were REOs the number of bank-owned homes sold this November were 41% of all homes sold. Quite a change! Short sales went up by 21.7% year over year and non-distressed homes gained ground by 88.5% for the same period. Overall unit volume fell by 15.5% which was expected after the foreclosure rush, but the good news still remains that non-distressed sales now make up more than a third of all real estate sales while last year at this time they were less than a fifth of all sales.

Average price per square foot has also gained ground, albeit very little. It is currently $123.38 up from last month as well as last year’s $122.72. Average sales price now sits above the $200,000 mark at $201,259, about 2.2% higher year over year. Median sales price is at $175,000.

Inventory in Sacramento county is at 3.6 months based on the last year of sales and 3.7 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory is less than a month.

There has been almost no change from month to month for Sacramento county real estate in October, but we could take the perspective of no news is good news. Market condition changes seem to be rumbling under the surface for a while now and this month is definitely an indication of them. For instance, foreclosure sales fell by 57.3% year over year! To balance that, we have seen an increase in short sales (59.6% for the same period) as well as non-distressed property sales (57.4% for the same period.) Overall however 1712 homes sold bringing unit volume down by 26.2% year over year.

Average sales price remains the same as last month, or almost the same at $121.85. Year over year, it has fallen by 5.4%. Average sales price rests at the $200,000 mark at $200,541 also declining year over year by 2%. Median sales price in Sacramento county is now $179,450.

Inventory is being watched closely by everyone and it remains the same as it was last month at 3.5 months. Foreclosure inventory is right around 0.6 months, something we are told the banks are watching as well.

Sacramento county is a mixed bag of news this month. The bad news is that prices still show a decline year over year. The good news is that the price declines are a lot smaller than they were a few months ago. In another piece of good news, REO inventory seems to be drying up and homebuyers are beginning to get interested in the non-distressed market as well.

A total of 1667 homes sold in Sacramento county this month, which included 774 REOs, 310 short sales and 583 non-distressed homes. This brings the percentage of non-distressed sales to 35% as compared with barely 20% from a year ago. Bank-owned home sales have fallen 48.3% for the same period while short sales have risen inversely to that by about 39% year over year. These are all good signs for a recovering market. Unfortunately unit volume seems to have suffered a blow: 22.3% less homes sold this month as compared with last September.

Average price per square foot is now at $121.09 which is 7% lower than it was a year ago when it was $130.22. Average sales price is now under $200,000 at $199,489, also a fall of 4.1% from last September’s high of $208,117. Median sales price for Sacramento county now rests at $175,000.

Inventory is consistently at 3.4 months whether we consider the last six months of sales or twelve. Foreclosure inventory remains at 0.5 months.

Technical difficulties we faced not withstanding, August has been a slow month for Sacramento real estate overall, not to mention REOs. It always seems like when there is a truly new reality out there in terms of the nature of the real estate market, homebuyers take a while to relate to it and it shows up in the statistics. The new reality this time of course is that there just aren’t that many REOs to choose from.

Consider this: unit volume has fallen 14.5% year over year. Foreclosure sales have dropped 39.3% for the same period while short sales have gained 73.7% and non-distressed sales have also gained by 19%. Non-distressed sales have gone from being just under 25% of all sales last August to consuming a third of the sales market. As they say, the times they are a’ changing!

Average sold price per square foot is currently at $118.98 which is 15.5% under last August. Average sales price is at $197,464, also 15.3% lower for the same period. Median sales price rests at $180,000.

Inventory is down to 3.2 months for all sales and foreclosure inventory still hovers around the 0.5 month mark.

After the hot foreclosure market of last year, this summer seems – in comparison – quiet and lackadaisical. A total of 1883 homes sold this July, a number close to the June homes sold. 50% of these sales are still REOs; however, the change is remarkable. Foreclosures have fallen 36.4% year over year. Short sales have gained ground by 75.6% and non-distressed sales by 30% but even that surge is not enough to make up for the unit volume shortfall of 12.5% year over year.

Sold price per square foot remained around the $120 mark where it was in June giving evidence to the argument that the market may have bottomed out after all. Currently average sold price per square foot is at $120.93. Average sales price has fallen 14% year over year from a high of $228,312 to rest at $196,323. Median sales price is currently at $175,000.

Inventory also continues to hover around the 3 month mark. Total inventory is at 3.3 months based on the last year of sales and 3.4 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory is at 0.5 months and 0.6 months respectively.

And the slowdown continues… But this might be for the better since prices are seeing some slightly better numbers since REOs have been down under a month’s supply of inventory. But let’s go into the details step by step. I’m jumping ahead of myself.

1852 homes sold in Sacramento county this month of which just 1000 were bank-owned. That’s a decline in REO sales by almost 26% year over year. Meanwhile, short sales at 302 sold gained 79% year over year. non-distressed homes of which just 550 sold this month are also seeing an increase year over year of 9.1%. Overall unit volume was down 8.4%.

Sold price per square foot is currently at $120.49, a little better than last month’s figure of $116.86. That is three months in a row now that we have seen price increases. Seasonal or will it stick? We’ll have to wait and watch! However, overall, prices have fallen 17.3% year over year. The average sales price is currently hovering just under the $200,000 mark at $196,672 (again, better than May’s numbers) and median sales price is at $175,000.

Inventory has not changed month to month – 3.2 months based on the last year of sales and 3.4 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory is at 0.5 months.

May has been an interesting month for many people I know. And by “interesting” I don’t mean good. For real estate in Sacramento county however, the Mercury retrograde period seems to have escaped us. Prices have risen month over month and inventory still remains low, in spite of the threat expressed again and again about more REOs hitting the market any time now.

A total of 1863 homes sold this month, the same number as last May. The number of short sales sold has doubled year over year, but foreclosure sales are now finally down 5.2% along with non-distressed sales down 14.1% for the same period.

Sold price per square foot is currently at $116.86, down 21.5% year over year from a high of $148.88 but doing better than last month’s $113.26. It’s the same story for average sale price: currently at $191,938, which is 22.2% lower than last year at the same time but looking marginally better than last month’s sold price of $182,724. This is the second month in a row we have had price increases in Sacramento county so at least we’re having a seasonal recovery. Median price is at $170,000 also higher than last month’s $155,000.

Inventory in Sacramento county is at 3.2 months based on the last year of sales and 3.5 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory is at 0.5 months and 0.6 months respectively.

Holy moley! Look at the date! Are we seriously this late in posting market updates? Well, the stars – or the weekends – didn’t quite align right this time, so excuse the delay and let’s get on with the statistics. Good or bad? You decide. I’m just here to report the numbers.

A total of 1885 homes sold this month in Sacramento county, an overall unit volume increase of 16% year over year. That’s pretty consistent with last month’s sales of 1836 total homes. The sales included 1229 foreclosures, 247 short sales and 409 non-distressed sales. So 78.3% of all sales are now distressed properties while the rest 21.7% are non-distressed homes. The highest gains this month year over year were in the short sales department – 140% up year over year. Foreclosure sales are also up, but by a much smaller 19% while non-distressed sales are down 16% for the same period.

Sold price per square foot is currently at $113.26, a drop of 24.3% year over year, but slightly higher than last month’s $112.70. Average sales price seems to follow the same curve – currently at $182,724 – which is 26% under last year’s at the same time, but higher than last month’s $181,625. Maybe the articles circulating in web and print media about Sacramento’s prices bottoming out are right. We’ll have to see. Median sales price is currently at $155,000.

Inventory is at 3.3 months based on the last year of sales and 3.5 months based on the last six months of sales. Foreclosure inventory has shrunk further to 0.6 months.

If real estate sales are what you want in Sacramento county, this month’s market snapshot should make you pretty happy. If price increases are what you’re after, you might be want to stop reading right now. Oh well. Nobody said I was the Florence Nightingale of real estate. (What? Did I just say that? I knew I needed to get rid of this laptop – sometimes it talks on its own!)

Anyway, enough jokes. Let’s get down to the numbers: A total of 1836 homes sold in the month of March. The foreclosures alone outpaced the overall unit sales of last year at this time and that isn’t something to shake a finger at. Total sales last March were 1216. Foreclosures this March were 1296 or 80 more than the total inventory sales. 220 short sales also sold in March of 2009 along with 320 non-distressed homes. 83% of all sales are now distress sales.

Foreclosure sales are up year over year by about 74.4%. Short sales are the clear winner in terms of gaining the most amount – 189.5% over last year and non-distressed sales are down 19.4% for the same period.

The average sold price per square foot is currently at $112.70 which is 27% under last year’s price for March ($154.24). The average sales price has also tumbled 30.5% from a high of $261,337 to $181,685 currently. Median price has dropped 35% to $160,000.

Inventory numbers look better than they did last year as well as last month. Inventory has shrunk further to 3.5 months (based on average sales of the last 12 months) and 3.6 (based on average sales of the last 6 months). Forelosure inventory is now at 0.9 months.

What was true of real estate sales in January of this year is even truer in the shortest month of the year. February saw little change in the marketplace. 1658 total homes sold this month bringing the sales slghtly higher than January’s 1628. The huge majority of these sales were distress sales. 74.6% were foreclosure sales (1237), 10.6% were short sales (175) and the rest 14.8% were non-distressed. That’s a small minority of about 15% overall sales.

Year over year, foreclosures sales are not going down: 106% higher than last February. Short sales gained the most; they are 143% higher than they were last year and non-distressed sales fell by 26% year over year. Overall, total unit volume is 65% higher than it was last February.

That coupled with low inventory is the good news part of this post. Last month inventory was at 4 months and 3.7 months. This year, it’s even lower at 3.7 and 3.6 months depending on whether you are considering the last 12 months or 6 months respectively.

Foreclosure inventory is down further to 1.1 and 1 months.

But that’s all for the good news. In terms of prices, they’ve slipped once again, albeit not as far as last month. Average sold price per square foot is now at $113.57 almost the same as last month’s $114.86. This is however a 30% year over year from $162.17. Average sales price is now $180,757 – slightly lower than last month’s $182,761, but again 34% lower than last year’s $274,177. Median price is at $155,000 down from $160,000 last month and 38% lower than last year’s $249,950.

Inventory in Sacramento county continues to shrink, albeit slowly, in the midst of continuing falling prices. That is the only silver lining to be found in the real estate numbers for Sacramento county this January. That, and the fact that unit volume remains high although it is lower than last month.

A total of 1628 homes sold in the month of January, 84% higher than last year at the same time. Of these 1238 (76%) were foreclosures and 171 (10.5%) were short sales. Thus sales are heavily bent in the direction of distress sales. Not surprisingly, non-distressed sales suffered a decline of 26% year over year. Only 219 non-distressed homes sold this January, that is 13.5% of the total sales. Foreclosures have gained momentum – 133% more sales this year than the last at the same time and 200% more sales in short sales this year for the same period.

Meanwhile, the price declines continue. Sold price per square foot has dropped another $5 – $6 from last month’s $120.64 to rest at $114.86. That is a drop of 29% year over year. Average sales price has dropped 32.4% year over year from a high of $270,639 to rest at $182,861. This is also lower than last month’s $192,773. Median price has also suffered a loss of 36.3% year over year from a high of $251,000 to $160,000. Last month, the median price for Sacramento county was $170,000.

Inventory has shrunk a little further to 4 months and 3.7 months depending on whether you’re looking at 12 months of sales or 6 months. Foreclosure inventory has shrunk to 1.5 and 1.3 months respectively; this is lower than last month’s 1.9 and 1.7 months.

If you’re waiting for a happy new year in real estate, this might not be it. Well, then again, it might. But the numbers in Sacramento county are less than prolific. Usually, nothing changes much in December anyway as home owners and home buyers are smack dab in the middle of the holiday season. Their days are better spent visiting than home shopping. Nevertheless, here are the numbers.

Unit volume is up again over November and over last year by a whopping 105.6%. A total of 1914 homes sold in December over just 931 last December. Of these, 72.4% (1385) were foreclosure properties and 10.4% (200) were short sales. Compare that with just 329 non-distressed properties selling in Sacramento county and you will see why prices have fallen yet again. Non-distressed sales now make up 17.2% of the total sales, down 27% from last December. Not co-incidentally, foreclosure sales are up 217% and closed short sales are up 354%!

Sold price per square foot last month was at $122.69. This month, it is down slightly over last month at $120.64 – that is however a drop of 31.6% year over year. The average sales price is also down 36.3% for the same period. It is currently $192,773. Last month, the average home sold for $196,839. Median price also tells the same sad story: 38.3% drop over last year. We are currently at $170,000 down from last month’s $175,000 and December 2007′s $275,500.

The only silver lining here is that inventory has shrunk a little. Sacramento county is currently at 4.2 months of inventory based on the last year of sales and 3.6 months based on the last 6 months of sales. Foreclosure inventory is at 1.9 and 1.6 months respectively.

It’s the most wonderful time of the year… well, maybe not so much for real estate sellers. Bargain hunters have been out again, but maybe some have been taking a break with the holidays coming. Unit volume is up 99% over last year, down slightly from the last few months.

Foreclosure sales continue to dominate the real estate scene. 72.5% of all sales were foreclosures and 10.8% short sales. With distress sales making up the major chunk of the Sacramento real estate market, non-distressed home sales have fallen sharply – by about 39.5% over last November. Only 16.7% of the total Sacramento county real estate market is now made up of non-distressed home sales.

Prices have fallen yet again. Average price per square foot recovered slightly last month and this month took another fall. Sacramento county is now at $122.69 a square foot, a drop of 34.3% over last November. The average sale price has fallen 38.9% over last year as well, resting at $196,839 from last year’s high of $322,239. Median price has also fallen for the same period – here we see a fall of 40.3% year over year. Median price last November was $293,000 and is currently $175,000.

Interestingly enough, home buyers also bought homes about 7% smaller than last year. On average the sold homes’ square footage was 1604 as compared with 1725 last November.

Inventory in Sacramento county is at 4.8 months based on the last year of sales and 3.8 months based on the last 6 months of sales.

It’s that time again! And this time, it seems like the real estate numbers seem to agree with most people’s predictions. (Hey, maybe next we can predict the Presidential Election results!) The overwhelmingly common opinion I hear from most clients is that we are around the bottom of the housing market. And I believe they are right.

Here are the numbers: total sales are up from last October! Sacramento county saw 1369 homes sell this October as compared with 884 last October. So the statistics are finally catching up with anecdotal data. As I have mentioned somewhere before, I see many investors and first time home buyers now entering the market. I hear things like, “I don’t want to miss out on this market!” Until now, this was just personal experience. Finally, we are beginning to see it carried out in the overall market numbers.

Since last October, the ratio of the number of distressed to non-distressed sales has completely reversed. Whereas last year, we had 61.3% of all sales as non-distressed homes, foreclosures and short sales made up 71.9% of sales this October. The number of short sales sold have also almost tripled from 33 to 138 this year over last October, suggesting that the push, even on lender’s minds is to get the inventory sold as soon as possible. Less than a fifth of the total market (18%) is now comprised of non-distressed sales.

Now let’s go to the real meat of the story and what all of us really care about: real estate prices! Average price per square foot fell 30.3% from last October to rest at $131.50 but we actually saw an increase when it was compared with last month’s price per square foot of $130.50. I know, I know, it’s only a dollar increase, but anything that is not a decline offers most home owners hope!

We are seeing similar hopeful numbers in the average home prices. The average sale price for a house in Sacramento county is down 34.7% over last October. It is now $211,916. But if you followed the market update last month, you will see that is actually an increase from September 2008′s average of $208,212. The median price has also seen a slight increase from last month’s $185,800 to $190,000 in October 2008, even though it is a decline of 36.7% over last October’s median sales price of $299,999.

Based on 12 months of prior sales, inventory in Sacramento county is at 5.7 months and based on 6 months of prior sales, inventory sits at 4.5 months.

Hardly anyone is happy about the events of the past few weeks.  To be sure, there are a few dubious winners.  Those for whom predictions of economic doomsday is a hobby have had the satisfaction of saying "I told you so".  Meantime, the executives at Goldman Sachs and other financial firms are reaping the tasty harvest of their well bought Congressmen.

For the majority of us — who find plenty to enjoy in the misery that actually visits us without savoring the anticipation of future misery — the economic crisis and the financial bailout have a tough time.

In real estate, our own fears for our future business are compounded by the fact that we know that other’s fears about their future can be a self fulfilling prophecy.  People who are afraid cut back on their spending, and for most of us the largest share of our budget is housing. 

A symptom of the overall terror is that a lot of my friends in the industry are looking to the security of other part time or full time jobs, with varying degrees of success.

What Happened When The News Broke?

As Congress was using the time honored mugger technique –  threatening you with great harm that handing over your money will forestall — anecdotally it seemed like the sky fell.  The phones just stopped ringing for about a week or two, and email inquiries trickled off to just about nothing.

That was pretty scary, though fortunately we’re starting to see people starting to look at homes again.

Even though on the face of it we thought our business destroyed, the weird thing about the awful news of the last few weeks is that it’s hard to prove (in a numerical way) how much of an impact this bad news really had.  Sales this month have continued strong.  With 1,369 sales in Sacramento County to date in October, we’re already 54.9% of the total volume for October of 2007, and although divining month end numbers is more of an art than a science, we’re looking at probably 1,600 to 2,200 sales for the month, with 2,020 being my best guess.  This is in line with what we’ve been seeing in the last several months.

What About the Immediate Future?   The Story of Sac County Pending Sales

Of course, the real story is in the pending sale numbers, since these tell the tale of homes going into escrow since the crisis.  Here again, it’s hard to find a pattern that shows people are so scared that they’ve stopped buying homes altogether. 

There are about 4005 homes that are pending sale (in escrow) in the MLS in Sacramento County.  Absent an economic disaster, the pattern we expect to see is that the more recently you look, the greater the relative percentage of pending sales you’ll see.  This is because as time goes on, those pending sales either fall out of escrow or close escrow. 

In the presence of an economic disaster, you’d expect to find this pattern violated, but we really don’t.  Of the 4,005 pending sales in Sac County, 2,013 went pending since October 1.  As I write this on October 25th, 597 homes have gone pending in the last 5 days (since the 20th), and 1318 have gone pending in the last two fifteen days.  Assuming 50% of all pending sales in the last fifteen days would close escrow (I think the actual numbers are higher but I don’t have the real "average close rate" to use), we’d be looking at about 1,318 sales for November — better volume numbers for November, 2008 than November, 2004′s 1,094 sales and almost as good as November, 2005′s figure of 1,446 sales. 

Sure, that’s not as good as recent months, but it’s still much better than last November’s pathetic total of 809 sales.  And in general, we’d expect it to be down somewhat from August through October, because sales almost always trend downward in November and December.  And to be sure, those November numbers are projections — not real numbers.

Price (Not Consumer Confidence) Is King

If Elvis is "The King" in rock and roll terms, traditional wisdom in real estate is that price is king.  What we’re seeing at least so far in October is that this is true even in a down market (assuming of course that a lack of credit is a mugger’s ploy and not a reality).  With mortgage rates down since August and prices continuing to fall, on one level we’re all running from our own shadows, but meantime, back in the real world, the buyers are still out there — at least for now.

With that I’m sure someone will accuse me of being unduly optimistic — again! — which actually is a funny position to find oneself in given my systemic pessimism.  Shhh… don’t give away my secret.